Weekend Nov 21, 2015
Of Two Minds on Higher Education Smith makes the same point I frequently make to my students. We are in a transition period away from degrees. He suggests degrees be awarded as a result of knowledge demonstrated on an impartial exam. This is precisely what an independent accreditation is such as CPA, CMA, CIA.
It's Year 2000 Dot.com High inSF Real Estate
Energy
We have a divergence in energy. While oil prices have worked lower, the prices of energy and service shares have climbed higher.Apparently stock buyers think the industry has weathered or is prepared for lower prices.
Crude versus Weatherford
WFT is the black line, Crude oi is the Red Black bars via the USO ETF. Notice the nice upward trajectory of WFT. It comes down to the uptrend line tests and then moves up again.
So are there some bargains to be had in the sector.
MVO Oil Trust has no debt and pays a 12.86% dividend. It is trading at 25% of its year ago high.
MVO stats look good but I am not sure about MV Partners LLC
Various energy trusts are on our screen. We suggest positions in Flow Serve FLS. This company has been lumped in with the energy service sector but it has a much broader client base.
Conoco Phillips
COP will not likely lower the dividend
The dividend is 5.49% and COP has no Mid East oil fields.
Stocks
Dow Transports
John Murphy is getting more positive on the Transports beginning to rally. But notice this is the one year anniversary of the Transport High in Nov 2014. with light trading during the Holiday Week coming up we may need to wait until the first week of December for clarity here.
Major Market Index
MMI looks to be completing a five wave move up from the August 24 low.
Seasonally we are in one of the best times of the year. But with the forty year cycle looming, I suspect this time it will be different.
I am having virus problems on my mac so here is the summary.
Stocks should rally into Thanksgiving holidays, topping the first two weeks of December.
Bonds have yet to bottom in price.
Energy sector shows a big divergence with oil prices lower but stock prices firming.He message here is that a bottom is closer than most think. This is re enforced by so many article in full capitulation mode sighing that low prices will be here for at least another year.
Gold and silver are waiting until 2016 to bottom. Commodities are held captive by the Dollar, not the big article on the Dollar in the WSJ this weekend, typical of what happens at market tops.
Social Mood
The latest thinking is that Russia, France, England and the US will not become a force to out ISIS. The Western Powers want Assad out and Russia wants him in. All of which plays to the advantage of ISIS. The attack in Mali following the attack in Paris is evidence of world wide negative mood. The President attacks Republicans on the other side of the world in Malaysia. Harry Reid promises an immigration bill will not come to a vote in the Senate.
Meanwhile the London real estate market cools. Retail slows in the US.
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