Weekend August 15, 2015
Tom McClellan compares Shanghai with the NASD
DJIA
Agin we highlight the stair step process of how a bear market moves down. The declines are interrupted by sharp vigorous rallies which then fail at lower highs. The rallies relieve the over sold condition and allow fresh shorts to come into the market. RSI at top has risen to the 50% level. MACD has at least risen. And the index has encountered the 50 day MA which has been resistance the last three times inn a row. With cycles pointing to an important low this next week our guess is that the rally fails here and turns down again.
Bullish Percent
This chart however suggests that the herd of stocks is gathering strength possible for a rally extension. We shall see this week.
Mesabi Trust - What a Mood Change!
MSB is a trust involved in shipping iron ore pellets in the Great Lakes. It is affiliated with Cliff Natural Resources. Both had nice reversals this week, particularly MSB.
Bonds TLT
TLT pulled back to test its break above the 200 day MA. Despite talk about raising rates by the FED, bonds REITs Utilities were strong this past week.
Gold Silver Miners
Gold, silver, miners, the charts all look about the same. The rally cannot stall here, it needs to continue. Hmm is there a relation between iron ore and silver, CDE is primarily a silver miner.
Crude Oil Daily
Notice how price failed just under the 200 day MA.
Crude Oil Weekly
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Crude Oil is definitely in a fifth wave down. The logical target becomes the $35 low of 2008.
Energy Service Monthly
If 20 falls 15 is a near certainty.
XAU
We never know until it is all over but this looks like a Wave one and then two progression.
XAU Daily
On the daily chart Wave Two is holding above the 13 day MA.
Social Mood
Politics
While Robert Folsom in Pop Trends Price Culture states the mood is inclusionary I would disagree.
Black Lives Count has Stopped both Bernie Sanders and Republican rallies, Hillary met with them in private.
Bernie is drawing crowds five times the size of those listening to Hillary, he is appealing to something she does not offer.
Trump is doing the same, outspoken, bombastic, and well everything Jeb Bush is not, who by the way has yet to really get his campaign going, an article in the weekend WSJ makes that statement.
24 million watched the Republican debate, that is 2.5x the number who watched Hillary debate Obama in 2008.
the time is ripe for change and change is in the wind.
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