Weekend August 16, 2014
Last weekend we thought stocks had sold off enough t generate a raly. That began this past week and ceased on Friday, but there should be more upside left. The eventual end of this five year bull run however looms.
Summation Index
The reliable summation index for the NYSE did turn up this past week but we need to see more upside to really have faith in a turn around.
Two Hour Chart
The tenor of the market changed a week ago as we thought it might. Note at far right how the index is now testing the breakout above the shorter moving average.
Bonds on a Tear
Bonds are on a tear, I apologize for not seeing and jumping on this reversal in January, what a rally. As we said last weekend, what is it the bond market is seeing that eludes the stock market? This is in fact a sort of danger warning, with investors running for safety.
The Dollar, Yo Adrian, Rocky is Back
The Dollar is rising on the weekly chart. We will shortly look at oil but this is also a longer term problem for stocks.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is testing its uptrend line. Remember the Dollar chart, continuing strength in the dollar is not good for stronger oil prices. The world is awash in oil. While the news media continually trumpets the chance of an interruption of the oil supply in the mid east, that is not what the victors ever want. Whoever is currently in charge wants the stream of income be it ISIS or the Iraq. Shipments are picking up out of Iraq.
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