Thursday April 10,2014
Here are a few observations on Where We Are
The market just observed the five year anniversary of the bull beginning in March 2009.
The tech leaders have all fallen since, GOOG, AMZN PCLN
We are in a mid year election year, every week sees another attempt at some sort of claim such as look ACA is working or we will get Immigration Reform, this will only get worse in the next seven months
Defensive sectors are already doing better, MLPs, Utilities, and such
The Dow
The market was up 30% last year. But the bulk of the move was from January to June. After that the Dow moved sideways into a typical Fall Bottom during October November. AFter registering a new high in January, once again the Dow moves sideways. It may be that there is now enough uncertainty and frankly enough participants who went long, that we are already moving sideways again. Who is left to join the party? The news was chock a block full of stories regarding the public wanting to get in last year after four years of advance.
While some news stories like Hulbert this week suggest we are not nearly as over done as during the dot.com bubble, I suspect that was the seninal event kikcing off the long era of stagnation we have witnessed, the slowest recovery in decades. This past two weeks has seen the ost IPOs since 2006.
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