Weekend Jan 19 2014
Weekly
Other than the signal which developed the drop to October 2011, all other sell signals from the PAR SAR merely served to set the lower end of the upward channel. Now a weekly close under 1788.24 would generate a sell signal But how meaningful would that be? For an answer let's turn to the much slower monthly chart. I wonder why there is no two week alternative?
Monthly
Now the sell signal is about 100 points lower at 1687.06! Given the strength of the move that is probably a good number to watch. If we had a two week version it would split the difference at 1737.50. I suggested that was likely the current support level.
A Five Year Montly Look for Clarity
Declaring that we are just now in a bull market because we hit a new high for the decade makes no sense to me. If we are in a bull market it had to have started in March 2009. Using the monthly PAR SAR we have a possible scenario to support that view.
Once the sellers were out of the way we had a quick move from 700 to 1300-1400 in round numbers. Considerable hesitation then ensued for over one year. Finally another QE injection kicked off what may well be the th rid of a third we are in now. This makes sense. It also makes sense that we could take most of this year to complete the third wave. A pullback into February might be a fourth wave. Then we have a final fifth to the point that doubts over the election bring things to an end. And that could easily be SPX 2000.
Just speculating.
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