Thursday Dec 19 2013
Social mood at the most personal level seems to be taking a turn south. Consider these seemingly random but perhaps related via socionomics events.
US Arrests India's Deputy Consul in NYC and strip searches her.
John Podesta, former Clinton adviser, was brought in to improve relations. His first act was to compare Republicans to the Jonestown suicide pact.
Obama sends gay delegation to the Sochi Olympic games. Recently Russia has condemned and arrested its gay citizens. This is in apparent retribution for both that and harboring Snowden. Secretary of State John Kerry warns Russia against harboring Snowden.
North Korea arrests and executes Kim Jong's Uncle. But not of course for the monstrous crimes against his own people commited over his lifetime.
After tryng Mubarak, his successor Morsi will be tried for espionage.
FBI Agent Robert Levinson is still jailed in Iran.
Sebellius denies ten year old girl a lung transplant even after clearance by Justice.
Bull markets are inclusive with various groups coming together. Bear markets work in opposite exclusive fashion. Long standing relations are torn asunder. Obama's return of the Churchill bust to
England is an example. Here is another. Duck Dynasty is the most watched cable television show ever. Now patriarch Phil Robertson has been put on hiatus after anti-gay remarks. It will be interesting to see just how fast this relationship unravels. Just watching the show, I doubt the family will react well to9 Phil being excluded from the show. This is a perfect example of just how fast things can unravel in a bear market of social mood. Phil of course is having his right to free speech limited by the gay lobby.
Today Dan Henninger's column in the WSJ notes that the President believes most people in the US believe the deck is stacked against them. Here is a great socionomic contrast. Reagan came in as President at the end of the 1966-1982 bear market. His positive vision of the US as a Shining City on a Hill drove he and Margaret Thatcher to work towards more freedom in various countries. Appreciation for that was on display at Reagan's funeral when many East European countries sent representatives. Now we are still in the middle of an era of economic stagnation. This President does not express a positive view of the US but sees it as a stacked deck. This is typical of the thinking that draws support in a bear market.
The move is on for a new Constitutional Convention. As the organizers suggest this would be the one way to reign in Washington, DC. Here is what I have described as The New Civil War on display.
Last weekend we noted that a US warship had to avoid a possible collision with a Chinese warship. Today on page A 14 the China Column notes 'China is demonstrating that its patient wait to assert itself on a global stage is drawing to a close. It's moment has arrived. Could distrust morph into hostility?' Recall that China has declared a Air Defense Identification Zone over a vast string of islands to its east. It wants to punch through those islands with its own sovereignty to dominate the Pacific. This of course is precisely what Japan tried to do with its Greater East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere in WW II. This was unrealistic of course for a tiny island with no natural resources, though Britain pulled it off for a couple of centuries. China however is not short on resources or a developing Navy.
Markets transition in stages. All the above links suggest growing hostility at all fractal levels of relationships both between countries and individuals. This is further reflected in the world downturn of opinions of political leaders from France's Hollande to USA's Obama to Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovch. Social mood changes at fractal levels of larger, between countries, and smaller, between individuals, degree.
All of these things are occurring at new market highs. Let the markets drop a few thousand Dow points and things are liable to be considerably more severe.
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