Weekend August 24 2013
We inadvertently did not post the last weekend edition, it is up now.
Overview
The Stock market backs off recent highs, internal indicators have yet to turn up. But positive seasonals for August suggest we should be nearing some sort of rally.
Yields have rocketed from all time lows, is Ben still in charge? No the markets are back in charge of rates.
The question of a commodity rally depends in the direction of the US Dollar. It is testing support now as oil bumps up against its highs at 108.
Weekly Summation Index
This important weekly indicator has not turned the corner yet. But a bottom looks to be approaching.
Bullish Percent
By cobntrast the 200 day bullish percent indicator has turned on the daily shown above and weekly charts. Stocks usually respond well to three day holidays and labor day is next weekend. Expect even slower volume this next week.
GM
What's good for GM is good for America as Mr. Sloan put it, GM looks to have completed a correction and could be bought here.
COP
COP has completed a consolidation and bounced at its 34 day MA, another buy like GM.
Bond Yields
Thirty year yields have jumped 40% from 2.58 to 3.9 since May. Yields are too far ahead of the MAs, expect a pullback for the next few weeks.
US Dollar
The weekly chart shows the US Dollar right on its uptrend suport line. Gold bulls claim the buck is headed down but they they have been saying that for ten years. I am more in the dollar bull camp.
Crude Oil
The 50 day MA has caught up with the oil price. Given the chaos in the Mid East, we think oil and the Dollar can both advance.
Bottom Line, stocks look ready to bounce, bonds should re trace the recent losses, the Dollar and oil look likely to advance.
Socionomics
The news reberberates with negative mod. From the senseless shooting in Oklahoma of the Australian to hundreds of htousands of refugees ( see op ed in Friday's WSJ) streaming out of Syria to what will apparently soon be civil war in Egypt, it is ugly. IT remains to be seen how this will play out in the markets.
hanks for reading The Market Perspective
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