Tuesday April 2 2013
I made the previous post based on a technical analysis of the charts and correspondence, much appreciated, from interested readers literally around the globe.
Since then I have been perusing the WSJ, well well well, I suspect that, like our gold miner bullish percent getting into higher gear, things we have mentioned for months and years are about to accelerate.
Municipal Disasters on the Radar Screen
on the editorial page A 12, Bondholders Beware, the WSJ notes that Stockton CA is likely to favor workers over bond holders, Mert Whitney will be proved right, widen her definition of default to include all stakeholders, citizens, employees, bond holders, and the muni bond market itself
London Whales and other Frightening Sea Demons
In our previous post we noted potential weakness in the XLF, hmm, on page A 13 Shelia Blair notes
Regulators Let Big Banks Look Safer than They Are - the headline says just what the graph of XLF says, and as I mused, did anything really change, notable comment
Bet on it there will be future London Whale surprises, and the next one might not be so easy to harpoon
Chinese Capitalism on the March
In A Pacific island Prefers Chjinese Investment to US Welfare
Now a Chinese investor plans a 4000 room resort on the 39 square mile Micronisia Island of Yap, Japan wanted to establish what it termed the Greater East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere but failed losing WWW I, will the Chinese succeed without firinga shot
Leading from Behind
In Venus and Mars Revisited Kenneth Weinstein examines the US retreat from international leadership, from Poland missle defense to Afghanistan to Syria, now even the Europeans look bold by comparison, this parallels the US retreat leading to the fall of Viet Nam, a similar disaster during a similar 18 year period of stagnation. This led to the murderous rampage of the Khymer Rouge and the belief that the US would do nothing.
Goldman Unit to Seek Risk
Goldman GS is launching a specialty finance company to invest in high risk debt primarily of midsize US companies with no credit rating. Hmm, have they retained Mike Miliken as an adviser? This reminds one of course of the rush to sub prime mortgages, leverage no less in this time frame five years ago. This is typical of the desire to embrace risk at new highs in a market, think dot.coms in 1999 or junk bonds in 1987 or sub prime in 2008.
And on page C4, IPO Pricing Signals Surge in Demand
GS is not alone, More IPOs are being priced at teh high end of expectations. The article relates that post financial crisis, 2009, IPOs were discounted, now the premiums are up, way up. In an ironic echo to the housing collapse of 2008, Taylor Morrison Home Corp will raise $524 million.
I can't make this stuff up folks....
Periods of stagnation exhibit similar events, it is the job of the asocionomist to point them out, they are plain to see.
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