The Great Depression

  • Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary

    Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary
    It's all here, times change people don't -the endless govt programs that fail to stimulate the private sector -the ups and downs of the economy, the veterans pension stimulates just as the housing credit did, until of course the money runs out -Roth is a attorney in Youngstown Ohio who kept a diary regarding the economy from 1930 until WW II breaks out, he is objective, candid, and forthright which is more than we get from Washington DC now or then highly recommended

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January 21, 2013

Comments

StuartD

Great post professor! - I was about to submit a partial 'timing mark' study result I use that takes some fib relationships into account. I thought you might be interested in it. I have had good success at the hourly/4 hour and daily levels and thought I'd take a shot at the weekly. Back-testing the weekly showed some good results overall, so here goes-

I see a scenario that could conclude the current weekly structure somewhere between end of May/early June 2013 (+- a week or two). The current weekly structure I'm studying began May 29 2012 (June low). I estimate we are almost at fib 2 out of a fib 3 total time envelope spacing (2/3 in, 1/3 to go.) I do not use price levels other than for confirmations as they are secondary to the main parameters. I look at what I perceive to be buying impulse patterns on the combination charts I study (4 years and counting) . The market will decide of course and I wouldn't want anyone to take this as trading advise- I'm doing the weekly study for fun right now as I only trade the 1 & 4 hr studies.

I have no idea what degree to call it but it is a weekly time-frame, so it's anybody's guess how big even if it does occur at the time indicated. It does sound simple but the accuracy is there throughout all the market time-periods I can correctly identify. (ah- there's the trick!) The market can and does morph unexpectedly on occasion, so I'm always ready to re-compute the estimate.

StuartD

Additional - not to confuse anyone who uses Elliott wave theory, I should better describe the 'impulse' patterns as 'accumulation' patterns. Thanks..

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