Monday November 19 2012
Monday Morning
Markets are up nicely this morning as we suspected in our weekend update.
Chanel 1932
We have noted that different markets even different stock indexes top and bottom at different times, not all together at once. Hence efforts by various writers to 'call the top or bottom' are flased in their assumption that there is one top or bottom.
Today's WSJ reports and displays some amazing socionomic juxtapositions. A front page story For Greeks, Crisis Reverses a Generation of Progress, infact reveals that this is at least two to three generation collapse. Recall that old saying shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations. As former insurance underwriters and graphic artists milk goats and tend to chickens, that is today's Greece. The old saying has it that Grandad worked hard to build an enterprise, the son maintained it, and the grand kids blew the success returning to where the family was three generations ago.
Now turn the front section over to the back page. This features a Chanel 1932 inspired ad campaign. The actual photo in the WSJ appears to be a broach or quite an earing, I am not sure which. But the tagline says it all
1932 Collection
80th Anniversary
It seems Coco Chanel displayed a lavish jewelry display in Paris in November 1932. Perhaps that was forward looking, the markets in the US had bottomed that previous May 1932 at Dow 41. Surely things could only get better. There was a stunning rally to teh low 180s over the next four years, and then the market collapsed again. The mention of 80th has considerable significance.
Erid Hadik follows a 17 year cycle at Insiide Track, Tom McClellan follows a 20 year cycle, and I have mentioned an 18 year cycle. No matter that roughly breaks down to a generational 20 years.
From 1932, the bottom in the Dow at 41 after a top of 390 just three years earlier
1952 Dow was up to 275
1972 the Dow began a disastrous 50% plunge from just over 1,000 to 577
1992 the Dow is soaring again
2012 the Dow is up but it looks like 1973-74 ahead to me, it is that time in Greece already
The juxtaposition of lavish jewelry on the back page compared to a 54 year old Greek man sleeping back in his childhood bed again at home in an agricultural village is quite a story.
Twilight
The Vampire Franchise has done well in both book and movie form. On page B5 is just what we would expect to happen in a fifth or final wave up in the market
Twilight Sparkles at No. 1
Vampire Installment Takes in $141.3 million, but Fails to Top Franchise Record
$141.3 M for an openning weekend is quite a score so to speak. It trailed the second installment, Twilight Saga New Moon which did $142.8 M. Fifth waves reach higher in terms of index value but lack the breadth of third waves. So this response is in keeping with what Ralph Elliott told us to expect in the last phase of a bull market run. We remain focused on a final high in spring 2013.
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