The Great Depression

  • Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary

    Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary
    It's all here, times change people don't -the endless govt programs that fail to stimulate the private sector -the ups and downs of the economy, the veterans pension stimulates just as the housing credit did, until of course the money runs out -Roth is a attorney in Youngstown Ohio who kept a diary regarding the economy from 1930 until WW II breaks out, he is objective, candid, and forthright which is more than we get from Washington DC now or then highly recommended

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October 13, 2012


Dennis Elam

There are many markets. Dell for example alrady has lost half its value in the last year and down from 30 to 9 in the last five years. I expectthat major indexes like the dow and spx will decline until we have a 6% dividend yield on the few stocks that are still paying dividends. This is a traditional bear market bottom. My understanding is that this would be about 500 on the SPX. Whether the decline is 50 or 80%, one will need to be out of long stock positions. My consistent take has beenthat we are probably so close to a top time wise that it was not a favorable risk reward to stay long. THus far that appears to be correct.

We are seeing turn of the tidal wave shifts as Bob would say ad manufacturing leaves Western Europe for Eastern Europe and the far East just as business has migrated south in the USA.

Trader Kid

I certainly agree there is not a favorable reward:risk for longs now in case I didn't make that apparent, I am short in fact. We shall see how things play out, you are correct that predicting the size of the decline in advance is not particularly important. I believe it was Prechter that said in EWP that all one needs to know at any given time is whether to be long, short, or flat.

Thanks for your thoughts.

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