The Market Perspective

Holding the Uptrend?

Wednesday July 25, 2012 6:00 AM CST

Momentum and internal indicators are turning negative. The weekly summation index did so on the close last night. This morning the media is fretting over the downturn in Apple that of course was supposed to go to $1,000. I am aware that this situation has frazzled the nerves and portfolios of many. Still, we have recommended Central Fund and I would not sell that under any circumstance. Gold has to go higher eventually. If it closes over 1600 today it will be as though the Proverbial Cavalry rode to the rescue in the last reel of the movie, gee that comment aged me....

SPX 

The 50 day MA in blue is right down to the apparently neckline of a potential reverse head and shoulders formation from May into June, see above. In the last half hour yesterday the markets bounced right here

SPX - 30 Minute

Despite the negative rhetoric in the media, SO FAR, the chart displays higher lows where buying has come in. This is happening despite the moves higher in TLT and the Dollar, both of which are at extremes. We previously noted that investor sentiment is the worst since 1995. 

So the stock market has done what it had to do, so far. 

This morning Spain's IBEX is up a surprising 2%, after of, course, weeks of negative news.  I take that back the news has not been negative on Spain it has virtually been predicting the end of Spain. 

Gold has now risen $16 to $1597.

Crude oil is up, not much but 88.68, the 50 day MA is 86.29.

XES has come down to re test its 50 day MA around 31.

So, let's see what happens today.  Mr. Market is doing his best to knock out the non believers, he is doing a great job, I am wondering myself.

Markets on Track... So Far

Tuesday July 24 2012

Here is someone else who believes oil drives the markets. Note that this analyst has mentioned the Middle East as i did this morning. 

The character of the rally changed after June 4. Now the market has been moving higher with the RSI bouncing off its zero line. Since the top on June 18, the market seems to have averaged 4-6 days in one direction or the other. I labeled the down moves in days. so a test of that 50 day MA now at 1333 seems realistic in the next week. 

Weekend Market Perspective July 22, 2012

And sure enough the market closed today at 1338 with a low of 1329. the median being

1333.5!  Note I added yet another MA at 162 days, half way between 125 and 200. Interestingly price stopped near the 50 and 162.

As was the case on the last two pullbacks, this generated a daily PAR SAR sell signal. the market has to get over 1380 to generate a bullish signal again. Previous sell offs were four to six days and fifty points, the fifty points has already been covered.

For the umpteenth time, I am not an Elliott Wave expert but the sell offs appear corrective in an A B C pattern. The market bounced back the last half hour recovering about half its loss for the day. 

So, feeling better now, the market hit the target set just this weekend, the patterns are repeating,gold and crude oil (see article referenced above both ended the day positive, oh did you listen to the news today, that's it!   

 

We added a fifth moving average of 250 to the chart and sure enough, that longest one seems to be teh lower boundary.  MACD looks like it needs one more low opening to bottom. 

The weekly summation index charts both turned negative today. This does not mean the markets cannot bounce here but this suggests more weakness. 

 Crude oil closed up on the day. But frankly, this has gone on a bit long for my taste. I am reminded that after May go away, summers are too hard on the trading nerves.One earns every dime one makes in the stock market.....more tomorrow morning. 

In closing an alert TMP reader sent this suggestion

This indicator is now at its fourth lowest point since 2008!  No wonder my readers are depressed! A monthly chart is slow, very slow to turn, patience...

Of course all these previous lows were buying opportunities.....if this were easy you would not need a day job with a boss, you could just trade the market...

Investor Sentiment - A Coming Rush to the Exits

Monday July 23 2012

We urge you to read the following article. This disparity is exactly what we have been discussing. Yes the sell off in the Euro has gone on longer than I expected, and the sentiment has gotten to an extreme benefiting such an occasion. 

The gap between consumer confidence and stock market valuations is the widest it has been since 1995 according to this Bloomberg report. This is why the eventual snap back will be so dramatic. This one article summarizes much of what we have been saying. 

Consumer confidence Sinks World Wide Here are other examples of consumer confidence fading world wide. 

The sell off was dramatic but was ending by the time the European markets closed here at 10:30 AM CST.

Tuesday July 24 2012 5:45 AM CST

A Rush to the Exits

AS the price of TLT has gone higher nad higher there is less and less money flowing into the funds. That is the message of the Chakin Money Flow Indicator in the back ground. What is going on here, if the price is going up should there not be more and more investors crowding in to the room?

What is going on is that the market is running of of investors that are not already in the room. For every buyer there is a seller, indeed.  Here is a simple example to put this, as we say in our title, in Perspective.

We are on the proverbial desert island. There are ten of us who survived the shipwreck of the Minnow, think Gilligan's Island Two. There are only two commodities on the island, bananas and coconuts. For whatever reason, the rumor begins to spread that there will be a banner crop of bananas but few coconuts with their precious milk inside. And so the islanders begin trading bananas for coconuts. Eventually two of us hold most all the bananas, the other eight hold coconuts. But the feared coconut shortage and conversely the banana bonanza does not develop. Finally one of the eight gets nervous, and offers to sell coconuts for a few bananas, after all it is a lot easier to peel a banana than open a coconut. What is the response?  Well we near all the bananas but the coconuts are held in four times as many hands. So we holding bananas know there will eventually be a flood tide of coconuts on the market wanting to return to bananas. The result is a huge imbalance in price as we price our bananas much higher than the last low trade, and offer much less for coconuts than the last high trade. 

And that boys and girls is about all you really need to know about how market work. The crowded trade means that too many folks are holding the same thing. When they want to exit, the prices reverse violently. 

 The chart of TLT shows this same banana coconut exchange is happening now, but on a larger scale.

1. TLT is violating the old rule that markets will return to their mean. TLT has not touched the 200 day MA since April Fool's day. 

2. As mentioned this weekend, MACD is showing a negative divergence, it is lower while price has risen. 

3. This is the typical breakout pattern, a new high on lower momentum,  that causes quant computer programs to buy the breakout, even when there are fewer traders left to continue buying. 

4. The rate on the ten year note at 1.4% is an absurdly low return, we have noted that bond prices now exceed what we saw during the worst of the 2008 sell off, again what a divergence. 

5.. The markets are not going to reward this kind of advance get in the tornado shelter, stay in the Safe Harbor thinking. As the first article states, we are back to 17 years ago thinking in terms of sentiment. 

6. Gold has advanced for the last eleven years. There is no Western Democracy that is going to retire its debt. As we have said, they are all pre bankrupt GM now. The idea that holding 1.4% paper from a country that owes trillions and even now plans more deficit spending is an extreme that will not be rewarded now. 

 

SPX

So far the sell off looks corrective as we suggested this weekend. The parabolic PAR SAR is still on  abuy signal. Note on the last two corrections it had to briefly reverse, causing the late comers to go short and sell out their positions before the market climbed higher.  

Internal Indicator - Is this a Carnage

One reader wrote for my reaction on the media description of yesterday morning as a Carnage. More a correction I would say, correction not carnage. 150 day Indicator reached down to its 50 day MA. The RSI continues to test its uptrend line in the bottom panel. A move above the zero line will keep us going here. These quiet higher lows are in sharp contrast to the Carnage Comments that drove the last few investors into low yielding Treasuries. 

The Smart Money XES Energy Service

Crude oil has dropped about five bucks the last two days. It remains above its 50 day MA. One might have thought XES would really drop but no, the thirty minute chart shows buyers coming in on the sell off, a nice pattern of higher lows on all pullbacks since the June low. 

 One More Thing - The Mid East Tinderbox

On Fox News last night, Charles Krauthammer noted that the israeli Amabassador on Meet the Press this past Sunday made their position clear. With the apparent impending fall of Syria, Israel suspects the chemical weapons would be handed to Hezbollah. This would be a direct threat to Israel, on top of the nuclear ambitions of Iran. The Ambassador made it clear Israel was ready to go it alone if the USA continues to do nothing.  The Administration is into fund raising, not diplomacy. 

This is the wild card before the election. Israel is not going to wait until after the election if it deems action necessary. The timidity of the US has emboldened Syria, then Iran, then China and Russia to believe we will do nothing, as that is what we have done. This is just the sort of situation that leads to unexpected consequences. While it is impossible to gauge fundamental events as to time and place, even a brief attack would skyrocket the oil price. We have two aircraft carriers in the region but would we use them in any way?  We simply mention this as something to add to the mix. 

Patience

Monday Morning Jitters - A Look Back at Oct 3-4, 2011

Monday July 23, 2012

Our premonitiion that stocks could sharply drop this week has come to pass. Recall our graph on France and Italy. It is now the same emotional moment of despair for Europe that the world experienced the first three months of 2009, as well as November, 2008. And so the headlines are negative, and over the weekend the public decided to sell, and how. 

One fund manager suggest this is the time to buy Spanish bonds yielding 6-7 x what US bonds pay. 

We are truly in the midst of a panic sell off, dumping of Italian and Spanish bonds and all else connected with these countries. As this fellow says, what is the likely outcome of all this, a common Euro bond, probably. Are Italy and Spain going to default across the board?  I suppose my point here is that

Italy and Spain are in the process of a crash, it is not being postponed. It is rarely a great idea to sell on Monday morning amid hysterical headlines. 

The European markets close at 10:30 CST, that is certainly pressuring the US market pre opening. But I think the thing to keep in mind is again that Italy and 

Will we see a smash sell off this week as we did in March 2009, it is looking that way. Let me re phrase that, between Friday and pre market this morning we are down 320 points, recall the week of last October, here it is as a reminder, the big days were Monday and Tuesday with the most volume, then the market reversed Wednesday to the upside, all the sell orders had to be fillled first, now as then there are no bids, and so crude is down this morning a whopping $3.50!  The range that Oct 3 was over three hundred points and over four hundred the following day, and that exahusted the selling. 

Date               Open            High        Low        Close Volume

Fri 07-Oct-2011   11123.41   11232.05   11051.13   11103.12   935017600 
Thu 06-Oct-2011   10939.87   11132.60   10858.67   11123.33  1025864128 
Wed 05-Oct-2011   10800.47   10950.89   10738.10   10939.95  1145720960 
Tue 04-Oct-2011   10651.44   10825.44   10404.49   10808.71  1387509760 
Mon 03-Oct-2011   10912.10   10979.19   10653.34   10655.30  1207355648 

Will investors dump IBM, XOM, Apple, MCD, serious companies making scads of money, that would be typical of a panic sell off. 

Here is the long term line up using International Racing Colors for each country.

Britain Green

Germany Silver

France Blue

Italy Red (appropriate....as in the Red)

Britain and Germany pretty well track one another. France is well, north of Italy and Spain, though I did not show Spain, it looks the same as Italy, see the weekend update. 

At bottom note the divergence, surprisingly the CCI has improved form its early 2010 low. It is tracking Italy. 

 

Back to the Future

Weekend July 22, 2012

I have been reading Engines of Change by Paul Ingrassia, a history of the USA told via fifteen different cars. I mentioned in the update that we have entered an 18 year period of negative sentiment, the last one began in 1966, the current one in yeear 2000. 

Chapter Seven is about the brief reign of John DeLorean, the Pontiac GTO, his lifestyle, and the failed Delorean. Two paragraphs on page 166 caught my eye in explaining just how fast the change then was happening. 

Events that seemed unthinkable just a few years earlier started happening all the time. In April 1966 Time as on its cover, Is God Dead?  Charles Whitman killed 13  people from the Tower at UT Austin, wounding 31 others. The Rolling Stones released '19th Nervous Breakdown.'

In 1967 the US Army was dispatched to quell a race riot in which 43 people died in Detroit. Beatty and Dunaway romanticized rebellion in Bnnie and Clyde. 1968 borught the assassinatinos of Martin Luther King and Bobby Dennedy. The Chicago Seven disrupted the Democrat Convention in Chicago. 

It does not take a lot of imagination to see that same chain of events playing out again today. As I say all my writing about socionomics and 18 year cycles has been quite serious for the purpose of preparing you for just these kinds of events. 

Markets Fade Thursday's High

Weekend July 21, 2012

S&P 500 Has First Back-To-Back Weekly Gain Since June

U.S. stocks rose for the week, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its first back-to-back gain since June, as results from International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) to Baker Hughes Inc. beat forecasts and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he’s prepared to add stimulus.

The benchmark index snapped a three-day rally on the final day amid concern Europe’s crisis is intensifying. Baker Hughes surged 16 percent to lead energy shares to the biggest weekly gain among 10 S&P 500 groups. Technology stocks rose 1.9 percent as IBM climbed 3.5 percent and EBay Inc. (EBAY) jumped 12 percent amid better-than-expected earnings. Financial companies had the biggest retreat after Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS)sank more than 9 percent amid disappointing results.

Bloomberg July 20,  2012 Back to Back

Observation - Who would guess amid the gloom and doom of Friday?

Cafe Americain sees two more weeks of 'coiling'

Jesse thnks the coiling in gold has at most two weeks to go. 

It is always interesting to read about world events from a perspective outside the USA. This rhetoric between Israel and Iran has to be worth ten bucks on the price of oil. 

It costs $4.25 MN< goes 44 MPH and is 95 feet tall, take a look

Overview

The markets have been up and down, it challenged the upper trend line suggesting a pullback the next few days. Baker Hughes is a component of our recommended XES Energy Service  ETF which was up on Friday. 

 Here is our short term expectation. 

The character of the rally changed after June 4. Now the market has been moving higher with the RSI bouncing off its zero line. Since the top on June 18, the market seems to have averaged 4-6 days in one direction or the other. I labeled the down moves in days. so a test of that 50 day MA now at 1333 seems realistic in the next week. 

Weekly SPX

A multiple ribbon of Exponential Moving Averages based on a Fibonacci time sequence suggest a stronger market, i think,than others might be seeing. Each high this past month has been met with skepticism from Art and John at stockcharts.  The market exhibits a series of higher highs and lows. The MAs are moving apart as the market moves up. This past week was an up week. 

Commodity Comparison

All markets do not bottom at the same time. Natgas in blue bottomed mid April and has zoomed since-in total contravention of the conventional wisdom at the time.  One alert reader sent an article suggesting there is still way too much natural gas. This is probably true but the energy markets trade on emotion not supply and demand. 

Everything else pictured here bottomed precisely June 18. Since then silver and copper are the laggards. Crude oil in black is having a nice upswing. Gold is moving sideways and trails crude oi. 

Please remember the move up in crude, over $90 now, is happening despite a strong dollar. So crude is bucking the notion that demand is slowing and the dollar strength which usually keeps it down. I believe this remains a harbinger of a weaker dollar straining at its upper limit now. 

Dollar Versus SPX

Numerous other blogs and websites have noted that the Dollar is still in an uptrend. True, but the MACD is waning, see bottom panel as the main chart is the Dollar. And the SPX is gaining. One is going to win this race and the other is going to lose. 

Bonds TLT

Here is the exact same chart except I substituted TLT bonds for the Dollar. Again the MACD is lower while price registers a slightly lower high. This is a negative divergence. I admit it is amazing how long this is going on, the drumbeat of Spanish, Portugese, and Italian problems grind on. All of that is old news, the idea that the Dollar and bonds were up on fears of Euro whatever with a declining MACD suggest this is a market about to break, see Jesse's coiling comment in the introduction. 

Spain

Zero Hedge and Mish are suggesting a Spanish meltdown, let's take a look

Spain's stock market using EWP as a proxy has returned to the area of the March 2009 panic lows, how much worse can it get?

Italy

Another buck down and Italy is there as well. I don't know quite frankly what to make of that other than to observe this level only lasted about a week in March 2009. Italy has survived worse than this, so Jesse's guess at two weeks, looking at this chart may be about right. Do not be surprised if a large swoon occurs in the European markets as we open for trading Monday. BE aware of how close they are to previous panic lows. Of course yes they can always go lower. 

The low for France's CAC was about 2500 in march 2009, it is at 3193. or so now.  While I see many hysterical headlines I don't see any one pointing out these three are at or near March 2009 lows. 

Market Summary

Bonds and the US dollar continue to show some divergent behavior near their recent highs as shown by the MACD indicator. Energy leads the way commodity wise. 

Socionomics

While there is an outpouring of concern after the Denver ashooting, calls for gun control, politicians seeking to capitalize on the tragedy, no one seems to be making the obvious connection other than socionomists, to the 18 year cycle of negative opinion. As I say, we have written extensively to prepare you for this. Now that civil war rages in Syria, murder in Bulgaria and Denver, and Iran Israel trade threats, it is clear the same cycles that set in post 1966 have set in post year 2000. 

For your own personal safety try to operate at a higher alert condition. One SWAT instructor puts it this way. Most people walk around in Condition White, they are oblivious to what is happening around them. When the gunman entered the theater in Aurora Friday,  most thought it is was a stunt, not a threat. This is understandable but was of course the wrong conclusion. The SWAT instructor suggest putting an orange square (move to Condition Orange)  on your rear view mirror in the car, be alert, pay attention. Look before you enter or exit your car or your building, be on alert for anyone  unusual, drive a different way to work if possible. The SWAT instructor suggests moving to what he called Condition Red, if say you suspect youare being followed. If so, make three right turns, if the car behind you is still there, you are being followed. Those that would do you harm spend a lot of time planning their actions, even a few seconds of discovery may be to your advantage. 

I don't have any solutions other than a sense of heightened alert for all of us. 

Thanks for reading The Market Perspective

Dennislelam@gmail.com

 

 

The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance ands no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks.  Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned.  Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital.  No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or charts.

 

 

Friday July 20

Friday July 20 12012 1:17 PM CST

The market is a bit overdone here as it continues to climb this channel.

SPX

The Annotation Tool is not cooperating but you get the idea. The market is pulling back again from its upper trendline channel. Gold is  actually up on the day, not a great deal. The guys at stockcharts are sounding the gloom and doom drum again. I went back and checked, sure enough they did so June 20 and July 6 as well. I could of course be wrong. 

Reading Assignments

The trillion dollars in college loan debt also contains $150 B in private college loan debt. TMP believes this will equal the sub prime  mortgage crisis but probably be a much longer drawn out affair, after all, there is no collateral. 

Miami Real Estate  gets help from unexpected quarters, the rich flee Argentina and Venezuela.

 Regrettably Correct

Wednesday this week I wrote a short piece comparing the probable success of the current Dark Knight movie release this weekend to the 2008 version. I noted that both movies have extremely dark themes, which are likely ging to prove preiescent to a changing negative mood.  Joe Morgenstern in Friday's WSJ notes that the reviews  by two of his colleagues resulted in death threat comments, no less, on one movie website.  Thursday Night fourteen people were killed at a Denver showing of the movie, conincidence I wonder?  We have no way of knowing. I based my comments on Mr. Morgenstern's review, I have not seen the movie, but the results are what I was really writing about. 

Scalpers are getting $100 a ticket.

A Generational Mood Shift

Andy Griffith died this month. Terry Teachout reflects on how entertainment has changed since Mayberry. He points to 1962 as the start of that change. 1966 was the top of the 18 year cycle that defined boomers beginning in 1948. ONe might note that the first state sponsored lottery begain in New Hampshire in 1964. Birth Control pills were available at college health clinics by the late 19360s, which ironically kicked off the divorce boom. Today over ten million single women are heads of households. 

Time Weighted Algorithmic Programs TWAP

I don't see a link at the on line WSJ but if you are interested enough to read TMP this article on Friday Page C4 July 20 WSJ, These Stocks have Rhythm, Algorithm, That Is, is a must read. The article displays charts of Coke, MCD, and IBM all displayying remarkable similar intra-day patterns. The linkage is that apparently some quantitative program was trading these stocks. I have made numerous references to such programs. We have noted that many rely on 50 and 200 day moving averages. Computer trading is running much of the action. 

Movin' On Up

Thursday July 19, 2012

Before you read this post, please click here for the Theme Song to The Jeffersons, Movin' on Up

This is precisely what the markets are now doing as we have outlined here the last few weeks. I know regular readers have thought I have lost my way but no, we will be proven correct. 

Rail Traffic is picking up.   This is important for our investment picks as rail is used to haul commidities, like iron ore or scrap steel. 

Here is the latest on natural gas.

Just yesterday I remarked that we cannot know the fundamental event that will kick off a Euro Rally, and today, well, Germany back Spain Bailout.

Remember our title a few days back, Mr. Bernanke please pay me less?  Well first Germany, then France, now the US sells bonds at a negative yield.  This is ridiculous, as is the tag line for the article, negative yield bonds as a hedge against consumer prices, huh?  A hedge against a consumer price rise would be a bet on a commodity price rise, what is this writer thinking?

Gold miner valuations are back to 2000 and 2008 levels,the two best times to buy in the last eight years.

NYSE Summation Index

Like George and Louise, we are movin' on up, it won't be over until we regain the February highs, at which point we will see articles like

How to Play the Election Year Cycle

Best Bets for November

That will be a good exit point. 

Thanks for reading The Market Perspective, particularly for those of you who still are reading ......

Crude Oil Tops $90

Thursday July 19, 2012

We have reminded readers to watch crude oil as the lead dog in the race.

As noted in the Performance chart yesterday, XES Energy Service is breaking out first, FCG is up as well.  Others like COPX are still lagging, XME has a nice rounded bottom on the chart. 

Yesterday I noticed a tagline on CNBC, Will the Euro Survive?  Intoday's WSJ is an op ed that there is nothing wrong with the Euro, rather it is a Spanish Portugal Greek debt problem which is true. Point is, these are the sort of headlines that herald a bottom in the Euro that is.

An old saying has it that 'there is always a fundamental event to validate the technical picture.'  In other words, in perhaps the next few trading days we will see a headline like

New Accord Sparks Euro Rally or

Crude Rallies on Renewed Demand (never mind that it is already up $12)

Investors Shun Bonds for High Tech Rally

Recall that within the last sixty days everyone was certain natural gas would fall below $1.50. No one was buying semi conductor stocks, until everyone was buying them yesterday. The dramatic reversal in social mood is always amazing. 

There is not much else to add at this point. We hope you are well prepared to profit from the upcoming rally in commodity related stocks. The Dollar and TLT are coming off their highs ever so slowly.

SPX is only off its February -March high by about 5%.But bonds are near all time highs, this is irrational to say the least. Everyone has expected 2008 to happen again. Again, as we say, those ships must leave the Safe Harbor of Bonds and venture back into the High Seas of Stocks.  Once long stock positions are widely held by the public, and we see headlines like

How to Play the Semi Conductor  Rally Now (this will appear after Semis rally for a couple of weeks)

We will know the rally is about to run out of steam. 

 

I have a professional accounting meeting this morning, back later this afternoon.

 

SemiConductors Pick Up

Wednesday July 18, 2012

There are many letters that attempt to call 'the top' or 'the bottom' in the market. Yet there are many markets and the change is  a passage over time. For an  entire school of fish,   in an aquarium  one tap on the glass may  reverse course for the whole school.   Usually that is not the case for the stock market. Different sectors move at different rates of speed. We noted this weekend that the Aussie and Canadian Dollars have already begun a move up while the Euro  has not.

But if we are right on our conviction that a rally lies ahead, various sectors of the stock market should be picking up. The overall market did bottom on June 1. Today an alert reader of TMP brings the Semi conductor group to our attention.

SOX Group

Just for fun I did something different than our usual chart of say the SOX index, here is a screen shot of 

the semiconductor group as I track it on stockcharts. Shazam Captain Marvel!  A 3% move in one morning, and more, is significant. So another group joins the stampede. The longer the Dollar and Bonds refuse to drop, ie holders are not selling, the more dramatic the shift will be as Meathead and Archie Bunker try to get through the same door at the same time. 

Performance Chart

The Performance Chart ranks stocks by their relative performance one to another. This chart shows that some sectors are leading while others still lag. XES the Energy Service ETF we recommended is the leader. Next EWZ the Brazilian ETF is moving up, Brazil is a big commodity producer so this makes sense.

The Green line is COPX Global Copper Miners. It looks to be registering its third higher low, but lagging XES and EWZ. Finally I listed the SOX index of semi conductors. Its move up today does not show on the chart but the point is that it lags the other three. 

 

FCG natural gas producers is another big winner today. So the markets continue to come our way, patience....

 

Socionomics

By the way, did anyone notice that article on page one today about the Germans using the mark again, and it is being accepted?  That very act is a nostalgic social mood shift away from the Euro and all its problems, like the Greek bailout, back to a simpler time, every man or country for him or her self. This may well be the start of a trend in Europe, let's watch.