May 23, 2012 Wed After market close
Gold will bottom before stocks. GDXJ is beginning to exhibit higher lows.
GDXJ
The first low was May 16-17, the second occurred today, with buyers rushing in at this new uptrend line. This happened despite this being a down day for gold itself.
Central Fund CEF trade at a mere .2% premium to its NAV today,I bought some more. This is a rare occurrence. CEF is usally 5% above its NAV.
Russell 2000 Hourly
This chart of the Russell has much teh same look, not as strong but that is to be expected.
Interestingly the gurus at stock charts turrned quite negative today, citing potential targets a hundred points lower on the SPX. But that ignores the important market, the Dollar.
The Dashboard
We call this The Dashboard as it exhibits several markets which move opposite one another. Once these markets reach extremes, we have idea entry points. We are approaching such a point now. It could come any time. This is why we have been accumulating CEF and GDXJ into this time frame.
Risk Off - TLT a fund of bonds rolled over a bit today. In the main panel the US Dollar in red green has reached its former high. This explains the move up in GDXJ today.
Risk On - Gold had a down day but recoverd as did stocks later in the day. At top the Australian Dollar hit a low, the opposite of course of the US Dollar as Australia is a commodity based economy.
Again, more and more analysts are getting more and more negative by looking at traditional charting measures. With tens of thousands of pro and amateur analysts looking at the same 50 and 200 day MAs for the same indexes they are all reaching the same conclusions. In fact we are getting closer and closer to a low, take a look.
Summation Index
This is both the NASD and NYSE summation index. All we need here is a turn in the US Dollar and a low is likely to come in. Note how close we are to the low from last fall.
XES
Here is a good flashcard of how fast things can change.With oil closign under $90 today, we may see an exhaustion move in the XES.
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