The Great Depression

  • Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary

    Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary
    It's all here, times change people don't -the endless govt programs that fail to stimulate the private sector -the ups and downs of the economy, the veterans pension stimulates just as the housing credit did, until of course the money runs out -Roth is a attorney in Youngstown Ohio who kept a diary regarding the economy from 1930 until WW II breaks out, he is objective, candid, and forthright which is more than we get from Washington DC now or then highly recommended

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April 20, 2012

Comments

StuartD

Great articles as always and very much appreciate the candid attitude. I thought it might be a good time to make a couple of comments as I do see very strong signs in the patterns and, as importantly, behavior and sentiment-

'Summation Index Promises Higher Highs After Correction Ends' - this is the recent article title by Tom McClellan. I highly respect his reports and articles and have no reason to doubt the validity of this latest correlation being made. I do however get concerned with pronouncements like this when it comes to the market. It very much reminds me of Mr. Prechter over the last few years and we know how well that's turned out as far as timing at least. The pronouncement and sentiment being promoted so strongly is where I get concerned.

The perception by the public could well be that of not being too concerned - after all the chart 'promises' all will be well a little later on. Does this demonstrate the already-present complacency and more recently indifference (neutral) sentiment? There are different ways the correlation could play out as you well know- the market will create it's own reality. That isn't what concerns me as much as the attitude being demonstrated. I was actually surprised to see the word 'promise' in an article by such an outstanding technician.

Not to be unkind to Mr. McClellan, perhaps I might be being a little reactionary. Perhaps you have other thoughts on this.

Dennis Elam

Stuart

As a matter of fact I received that same update from McClellan and wondered the same thing, is a higher market justified later this year. Tom seems to see more things from his examples than I do. He has lots of stats, more than I have but I would say the jury is out on his conclusion.

by the way, Bob Prechter has a lot of heavy hitters at his socio conference. On my row of tables were the tech heads of J P Morgan, Barclays who spoke, and HSBC. They are following Steve Hochberg and the writers for the various letters rather then Bob's generalizations I expect.

StuartD

Thank you for the information. I do have respect for Robert Prechter's ground-breaking work regarding the aspects of how sentiment drives markets. I have to wonder if media attention somehow emboldens these technicians who then lose perspective. Perhaps demonstrating a characteristic trait of their personality types? They may not realize how many people take them seriously. It seems Bob Prechter lost some aspect of his judgement right around the time he was featured prominently in the media a few years back. A recent spate of appearances in the media by Tom McClellan occurred prior to this particular statement. Seemed like a repeating pattern of loss of care over word choices.

Very interesting note on the socionomics attendees. Perhaps EWI need to keep Robert away from the mike regarding market timing? (attempt at humor). Are you saying that Bob Prechter does not officially represent the data sent in the general market position newsletter? I have been reading in many blogs that 'Robert Prechter's stop' gets blown again. At least twice in the last few months. Even prior to that you can see his warnings over the past few years as searchable records and his warnings were always for the immediate term. Does Steve Hochberg and other writers have different conclusions? If so, why isn't EWI getting credit for better general market timing? I'm just trying to understand the set up. Thanks again.

StuartD

Also does EWI have a credible and demonstrated track record for all of their market calls over the last few years? I have not seen a list published by them yet. Seems odd. They do hand-select certain examples of winners but that hardly counts over a longer term. If they do have one you are familiar with, could you please forward the url or access procedure to me? I would be very grateful.

I have not been able to find much positive feedback anywhere but lots of negative comments from traders who have used their service. I also discovered a review site the other day that seemed credible (I forget the url) and they gave Bob Prechter 23% over the last 5 years (not 'EWI'). The maximum I saw was 53% for another market newsletter. In fairness, they did mention that they weren't sure what to give Bob over a longer time frame.

I wonder what it is the heavy-hitters would find useful apart from the socionomics. Sorry for my confusion here but something doesn't seem to add up. Thanks.

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