Friday November 25, 2011
I could of course be terribly wrong. I have been thinking this is pullback. Hedging my bets I dumped most of my holdings last Friday afternoon, what difference four days can make.
Gene Wilder as Dr. Frankenstein - I want you to lock me in the room with the Monster, whatever I say, don't unlock this door!
Marty Feldman as igor - It's been nice workin' with ya
The few e mails I have received are pretty much in the vein of the exchange above. I have clearly lost it in suggesting that we are getting close to a bottom. But, amid the horrible headlines in the WSJ today, the market is turning up, yes someone is buying GDXJ. I am sure one can say, 90% down days are near always followed by an uptick. But the SPX is turning back from a move just past its 61.8% re trace, and crude oil is still quite strong. The US Dollar pretty well hit its previous high this morning, I have suggested a double top there would be precedent for a bottom in stocks.
Suppose you were on the proverbial desert island and all you saw was this chart.
NYSE Summation Index
The real resolution for the Summation Index lies ahead next week. The market closes early today and we will certainly have thin volume. The price index on this daily chart is coming down. The 50 day MA is moving up, the 200 day MA is indecisive.
SPX INdicator
THe BP Indicator over threw the 61.8% just enough to take in everyone on the bear side. But it has stopped right at the uptrend line.
The Dollar and Stocks
UUP is just 20 cents shy of its October high. Will it gap up Monday as it gapped down at the end of October? Who knows but the pattern of UUP and SPX moving in opposite directions is clear. Market bottoms occur amid gloom and doom and uncertainty and the headlines this past month certainly qualify for that.
More later this weekend. But admittedly I don't know that there is much to add to
Oil remains strong thanks to the Administration refusal to start the Keystone Pipeline.
Gold also remains in an uptrend, remember it's All One Market.
Ralph Lauren RL remains in a strong uptrend.
Most analysts have declared this to be the start of 2008 all over again, if bob Farrell can have ten rules I guess I can start my own list, - Panics and disasters are never widely announced.
Panics and disasters do not occur with investors rushing into .9% five year treasuries, an historic low.
Panics do not begin amidst massive insider buying which began again this past week.
do not begin as small investors dump stock funds in the biggest exit since March 2009.
Igor you may be right about my imminent demise, but for now, that's my story and I am sticking to it.
Socionomics
Here is a screen shot of negative mood amidst a holiday, note the injuries in the right hand column sustained during a holiday shopping day. See our next post for a once in a century turn of negative mood.
If i was in the desert and all I saw was thr $NYSI chart, this is what I would Think. Clear downtrend define and established with the 50ma average below the 200ma since May. This shows me true weakness of the market. Then a voilent rally up but even with this rally the 50ma couldn't even cross the 200ma. Truly still a weak market. Macd turning down suggest more weakness ahead. with the 50ma unable to take out the 200ma with the recent rally suggest that it will test the bottom again and the 200ma becomes a tvery formable resistant area to be reckon with later. Rallys are shoter then selloffs.Then you got everybody expecting a santa claus rally. Perfect set-up for the bear camp. I wnt tothe swtores today and with the exception of best Buy, WalMart and Target most of the stores were empty but most people were not buying. Consumers wanted deals before they open their wallet.
Posted by: valentin tristan | November 25, 2011 at 06:29 PM