The Great Depression

  • Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary

    Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary
    It's all here, times change people don't -the endless govt programs that fail to stimulate the private sector -the ups and downs of the economy, the veterans pension stimulates just as the housing credit did, until of course the money runs out -Roth is a attorney in Youngstown Ohio who kept a diary regarding the economy from 1930 until WW II breaks out, he is objective, candid, and forthright which is more than we get from Washington DC now or then highly recommended

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November 01, 2011

Comments

Valentin Tristan Jr.

We have seen the high for the year dating back on May of 2011. The DOW was at 12807. Recently in early October the DOW saw a rally from the lows of October 3, 2011. The Dow was @ 10623 and rallied to a high of 12272. That was a 1649 point rally. Since it broke to the upside from its trading range everybody expects the DOW to rally into a new high for the year. This is only a Bear market rally define by the Dow Theory as “secondary moves tend to be faster and sharper than the preceding primary trend.”Since the primary trend which is down took five months from high to low and it took one month to gain 1649 points that qualifies it as a secondary move. The market tends to fool the greatest amount of traders it can so it’s only logical to break to the upside to get more investors in the market since back in October everybody was talking about how the bear had arrived. The market perform one last gasp up before everybody knows that we are truly in a bear market and the trend is definitely down for some time to come. If you want to know more about the Dow Theory go to this web site: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory
Predication time: The Dow will revisit 10623 before the end of the year and if that supports does not hold then it can go all the way to 10000 points in the Dow. So by year’s end the Dow will be between 10000 – 10623 points.

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