Tuesday Sept 27, 2011
I suspect we are well into an extended fourth wave. This fourth wave is bouncing from the August 8 400 point drop and a very oversold condition. Here is a suggestion of where we might be now.
Corrective waves tend to have a A B C up down up pattern. Here is a 'suggestion' that the market completed the B Wave with its 400+ point drop last thursday. If that was the case the market has a final small a b c pattern to complete a final C Wave up in the overall Fourth Wave. Wave A was about four weeks while B took three weeks. Extrapolating this would take the market to a recovery into mid October. At that point the Fifth (?) Wave from the May 1 top would take the market to new lows. This also fits with the idea that October is a poor month for the market. And that the market typically then makes a bottom in November. The actual wave label here is open to speculation as always but this appears to be a logical pattern.
Alternately it might not be that simple. There are lots of writers looking for another new low.
Honestly there is honest speculation about just which wave we are in now as I read other bloggers and speculators. But for the time being, wherever we are, this seems to be a reasonable posture.
For now this seems a likely scenario. The blue up down up sequence ends around 1240, and then a new plunge back to 1025 or so begins starting in mid October. That would be accompanied by new lows in crude oil, gold, and silver. And that should mark a high for the US Dollar recovery. Remember, it's All One Market AOM.
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