Monday Sept 19, 2011 7:00 AM CST
Our original thesis at the August low was for a top by mid September. This last week was either the set up for just that or we continue to see the kind of dramatic ups and down so typical of bear market rallies.
Note one of our final comments in the summary section this weekend.
It was that the market was short term overbought. That is now clear as the NASD is already down 26 points this morning overseas.
Was that all there is or is this another swoon before a recovery? We are back on watch and will update as necessary.
As I mentioned at the time, we sold most of our positions and presume that you did likewise. As we said let's watch the VIX and TLT here.
This same pattern exists for Ralph Lauren RL and Soothebys BID, the latter being an excellent approximation for the market. RL hit a new all time high this past week.
As the saying goes the market is climbing the Wall of Worry but so far staying in a reasonably well defined channel. The market just opened, this is a sixty minute chart, let's keep an eye on the lower trendline now about 54.
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