Wednesday Sept 21, 2011
PSEUDOLUS]
Something familiar,
Something peculiar,
Something for everyone:
A comedy tonight!
Something appealing,
Something appalling,
Something for everyone:
A comedy tonight!
Nothing with kings, nothing with crowns;
Bring on the lovers, liars and clowns!
Old situations,
New complications,
Nothing portentous or polite;
Tragedy tomorrow,
Comedy tonight!
Something convulsive,
Something repulsive,
Something for everyone:
A comedy tonight!
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum (Greece is once again center stage)
The FED is going to announce something today after seven straight up days of market advance. The idea that the FED is going to change something is indeed a carnival idea.
There have been massive withdrawals from stock mutual funds, perhaps more so than in 2008. The result is that now millions of investors are watching the market go up while they make nothing. No matter what the FED does, the most likely outcome is that the same investors will now be piling back into the market at prices higher than the August 8 lows.
As we have mentioned, fear is still high with the VIX over 30. Insider selling continues in the gold and silver mining stocks. Buying continues in out of favor URA and TIE by insiders. So a grudging rally is likely to continue.
Bullish Percentage
The action versus the 50 and 200 day moving averages is amazing isn't it? We told you the internal high for the market was last February. February was the last time the BP was over its 50 day MA. Since then it has failed every time, well eventually. It is now poised to challenge it once again. Our bet is that this time it succeeds. This will drag investors back into the market.
World Central Banks can only print money or lower the interest rate. They have done both to no result other than juice the markets higher. The welfare roles grow, unemployment is stuck, and the President calls for higher taxes. But don't take your eye off the market. The low was August and the near term surprise is much more likely to be to the upside.
The Picture of Frustration
After a series of down, up, down, up, down, and now up again, LVS is right back where it was in February. This is typical topping or distribution pattern at the end of a big move such as the one from March 2009. We have noted that others in this group like Boyd and MGM are already succumbing to bear market woes.
More later today after market close and the latest FED hand wringing.
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