Book Review

I always enjoyed Freidman's comments on KLBJ talk radio when I was able to listen. And so I grabbed this one off the shelf at the library.

If Tom Clancy had written this as fiction, it would end his writing career. What is amazing is not so much the predictions of hundreds of people in outer space in Battle Stars, but what Friedman simply assumes will not happen.

The 2008 financial  meltdown had happened and is mentioned in the book. Yet Friedman, unlike anyone else I have read, seems to think the economy of the US, hundreds of trillions in his words, dwarfs current problems a few trillion at most. Everyone else notes that that the debt is currently equal to the annual GDP and that off balance sheet promises of social security, medicare, etc. are probably equal to future discounted value. But somehow this problem just goes away.

Fredman also assumes the current Jihad problem is essentially over. Gee, can we come home now? By some miracle, Israel is still around in 2040, as is Iran. How we keep Iran from eliminating Israel is not addressed. That Muslim problem in France, once they attain a 51% majority, bye bye France, this too is ignored. Friedman dismisses China as THE future power saying China is hemmed in geographically. Perhaps so but China is also home to 1 Billion  + of very hard working very bright people, ever see a Chinese business in the US fail?  Friedman sees the US as still a teenaged country, the US continues to grow technology throughout the next century. With the outpouring of engineers and  mathematicians in the Far East, and the lack of same here, that is hard to swallow.   The top 20% of India and China college grads are more than our total college grads, note women's studies and recreation have not caught on as majors in China.....Mexico emerges as a power but Friedman never bothers to explain how a real legal system is formed in Mexico, the lack of one is why no one will invest in Mexico.

Prolonged space exposure results in loss of bone mass. But, again, no problem, we put hundreds of people in space in just a generation or two.  Three giant battle stars are in geosynchrous orbit over earth, Japan and Turkey (not a misprint) have formed  a coaltion to oppose, are you ready, Poland, and then Japan launches an attack from its moon base that somehow we don't see coming, and ka bang the three Battle Stars explode, (Japan uses a large rock atop its rocket, honest) except that Princess Leiah and Luke Skywalker have escaped the Peru Battle Star  in the Millenium Falcon to meet up with Hans Solo on the moon as he infiltrates the Japanese base....meanwhile C3PO breaks into the launch codes of the hypersonic missles located on Iwo Jima.....

okay I made up the Luke Skywalker part but Friedman lays out an outer space war. Frankly I would think the world would sigh with relief that Turkey finally dominated the Arab world, at least someone responsible would be in charge....

A look at the next 20 years would have been interesting, as it is, this is beyond H G Wells or Jules Verne....

It is important to read and read broadly to keep what is happening in context. We present this review as part of that idea.

Comments

[Normand]

Thanks for an excellent critique.

I agree the next quarter of century would have been sufficient. Anyhow, we will not be around to know if Friedman is right.

If he had been around in the 1ate 1800's and had written ''The Next 100 Years'' in 1905, do you think he would have mentioned television, computers and Internet?