Friday 12/6/2024
Considerations
The oil market continued to oscillate around $68-74. Energy service shares have not exhibited a definite break out. With more households exposed to the stock market than ever before in history, consider the following cautionary signs.
The Shiller Cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio or CAPE is well never mind, stay big picture. As of November 25, it is 38.2, the high for the current bull market. The only times it has been higher was prior to the dot.com bubble, March, 2000, and Pre Covid2021.
Warren Buffett has his own ‘Indicator.’ Divide the market cap of publicly traded companies ( the Wilshire 5000) by the Gross Domestic Product GDP. The average for this indicator is 85%. This month is reached 206%. At the dot.com bubble high it was 144% and prior to the 2007 crisis it was 107%. Danger lies ahead.
Trump won big and would have won bigger. But WA OR CA IL NY MA are total Democrat states. This is how Kamala managed over 200 electoral votes. It was not that way in 1928. Hoover won 447 to 87 over Al Smith. Four years later, he lost 472 to 59. In 1972 Nixon defeated McGovern 520 to 17 carrying 49 states. He resigned in August, 1974.
The idea of invading (Huh?) Mexico to take on the drug cartels is growing, I got an e mail today from my own House Representative wanting to know if I wanted to ‘take out the Cartels.’ It went on, ‘explore every action necessary: how Trump may change fight against Mexican Cartels. ‘Wake up Chip Roy!
Mexico defeated General Pershing in the Battle of Carrizal. Furious Pershing wanted to attack. President Wilson said no. It was over.
The Cartels are well armed and know every knock and cranny of their country. Sending troops would raise the idea of Imperial America and likely result in another disaster, see the movie Clear and Present Danger. How about addressing the drug addiction in the USA?