The Market Perspective

A Quick 1,000 Points

Tuesday May 11 2021

I don't think this was the top but a precursor of things to come, NASD actually recoverd quite  a bit.

Short Bond

The correction here is ending. More and more trouble on the horizon, pipeline hacked, Russia on the Ukraine, gasoline shortage, a change in mood is coming.

Catch the Wave

Tuesday May 11 2021

 

Elliott Wave Analysis Can Help You See Countertrends. Pattern in Focus: the Zigzag.
This simple, corrective Elliott price pattern helps you anticipate reversals instead of getting run over by them

By Elliott Wave International

Often, as traders and investors we start off with an open mind about playing the field, so to speak. We watch the news, listen to friends and colleagues -- and we try to apply what's known as "fundamental" market analysis to make our trading decisions.

Soon, though, we start to realize that the "bullet-proof" logic of "fundamental" analysis is not Kevlar, but a piece of cardboard. We see markets fall after good news; rally after bad; and go sideways, defying both bulls and bears.

That's when we realize that trading is not as easy as it seems.

At that point, serious traders start to turn to technical market analysis. It doesn't look at the news, or events, or politics, or what the Fed Chairman had for breakfast. It doesn't even look at the name besides the ticker symbol. It looks at the price charts, at the market itself, to determine internal strength, momentum -- and, ultimately, the trend.

One of the leading technical models today is Elliott wave analysis, which teaches that market prices are not random, but patterned. These patterns are constantly unfolding in all liquid markets, on all time frames -- bullish, bearish, lasting over the next few minutes or the next few months.

Take, for instance this chart below of a venerable Big Board stock, global timberland producer and real estate investment trust, Weyerhaeuser Company (ticker symbol WY) -- in May 2020, at the start of the pandemic.

If you'd been tied to the name Weyerhaeuser or the news surrounding its name at that time, you would've likely done one of two things: Shorted the stock or made a hard pass talk to the hand.

Remember, this was May 2020. The world was two months into the worst pandemics in centuries. The global economy had come to a crashing halt, and the future of real estate seemed doomed.

In fact, the mainstream consensus about companies associated with the constructing, buying, and selling of property was terminal. On May 1, 2020, Motley Fool described a single-day bloodbath in Weyerhaeuser and wrote:

**"WY plunged 15% in a matter of seconds... Any company's cutting its dividend is unwelcome, but a REIT's doing so is particularly bad since the REIT structure was created specifically to pass income on to shareholders."

But on May 26, 2020, Elliott Wave International's Trader's Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy showed subscribers this bullish chart of Weyerhaeuser:

Why was Trader's Classroom turning bullish when the rest of the world all but wrote WY off?

Because the decline in WY had a signature look of one key Elliott wave pattern: a zigzag. Here, the Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior offers this definition and idealized diagram:

**"A single zigzag is a simple three-wave pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is 5-3-5, and the top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A."

Zigzags are corrections -- i.e., countertrend moves, and signify a temporary break in the larger trend. The significance of WY's completion of this countertrend move was clear: The stock was headed for a powerful rebound.

Press "play" to listen to Jeffrey Kennedy's analysis of WY from his May 26, 2020 Trader's Classroom video lesson in which he calls for a "new bull market."

The next chart captures what followed: WY indeed caught a powerful upwind and rode the current to its highest price level in its 121-year history, a comeback that shocked much of the mainstream financial world and those traders betrothed to a narrow view of market behavior.

In the end, Elliott wave analysis proves that finding opportunity in financial markets is truly unlimited.

It starts with learning the five core Elliott wave patterns. Once you identify a pattern using the Wave Principle, you can then confidently anticipate the direction prices will most likely move next.

The best way to learn these patterns is by reading the "bible" of Elliott wave theory -- the book Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

You can read the entire online version of the book for free by becoming a member of Club EWI, the world's largest Elliott wave educational community. Club EWI gives you free access to timeless educational resources like lessons, eBooks, seminars, video tutorials, and more -- meticulously curated to create the most comprehensive Elliott wave learning experience anywhere.

Follow this link to get started: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior -- free access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline . EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

Uh Oh

Monday May 10 2021

FB Is the Party Over?

Monday 5/10/21

https://markettactic.com/3-reasons-why-smart-investors-are-dumping-facebook-stock-before-its-too-late/5012250/

Uh oh

 

TBF Advances One Percent, Strange Day for Stocks

Monday May 10, 2021

this weekend i suggested that TBF made a slightly higher low and then reversed to the upside Friday. That looked like the final low to me. Today it is up another  17 cents or one percent.

The media is full of article about new high copper,gasoline .lumber prices you name it. And employers cannot find enough help, too many being paid not to work.

NASD closes on the low for the day

The tech index declined 2.5 % today.

 

Musk appearance on SNL may have been an ironic appearance given what is happening to his stock price.  it closed two points above the low for the day.

NASD 100  down 2.63 % today.

 

 

Summation Collapse in NASD

Weekend May 8 2021

 

this is a sum of the McClellan Oscillator. Am

Looks like azing the NASD at top is as high as itis given the collapse of summation.

RYEIX Rydex Energy

Looks like Rydex Energy has begun a fifth wave up. That could extend into June which is our expected high for the markets.

Rydex Energy Service is the same

a fitfh wave begins.

Elon Musk Hosts SNL

Friday after market close

May 7 20201

Elon Musk fans are organizing weekend parties to see their idol on SNL this Saturday. Hmm has anyone looked at the TSLA stock price.

TSLA has dropped  250 points from its high.

 

TSLA re traced  61.8% of its drop from the high, and turned down again.   Expect TSLA to take out 550. The NASD party is ending, in /Dow Theory Terms the NASD is not confirming the new highs in the DJIA and S  & P. As the NASD outperformed the other indexes it is fitting it will lead the way down. Recall that from the  5,000 top in March 2000, it ended at  1,500 a couple of years later.

TBF Short Lond Dated Bonds

Well finally, perhaps TBF has double bottomed at 17.40 and reversed in strong fashion today.tlt

The mirror opposite is TLT, which double topped lately

mirror opposite, this should conclude the counter trend rally in bonds, commodity prices are rising.

More this weekend

 

 

Changing the American Model after 233 Years

Friday May 7 2021

Do We Really Want to Change America?

A more than 12,000% rally this year in dogecooin, a cryptocurrency that was et up as a joke and serves no purpose, sending its price to a record 69 cents per token this week.

Crypto Investors Chase Next Hot Coin

In 1929, economist Irving Fisher said:

Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.

Three days later, the stock market took a dramatic dive, and the Great Depression eventually followed.

The crypto mania is just the latest phase of chasing ‘investments’ with little or no value. During Holland’s Tulipmania, one chap organized a fund-raiser for a firm whose purpose would be announced at a later date. The same thing is happening with the SPAC craze today. These are shell companies which promise to eventually wisely invest the money which has been raised.

While near everyone expects the US economy to boom coming out of COVID, there are signs this might not be the case.   After four months of job growth, today’s report is that a mere 266,000 jobs were created last month. And unemployment ticked up from 6 to 6.1%.

While Team Biden’s cash from helicopters promises economic expansion, it also diminishes the necessity if going back to work.

And chip shortages have idled manufacturing plants.

Meanwhile demand for gasoline is up as everyone ventures outdoors again. Crude oil is priced in the mid 60s. The Energy ETF XLE posts a new high at $52.96. Even offshore driller RIG has climbed from about a buck to $3.74. for the time being the oil patch is out of trouble.

But did America really vote for an entire re-make of America, or simply put, do you prefer the French model? Consider one of many promises from Team Biden, free Community College CC. The CC concept is a wonderful thing. A low cost, open door education provides everything from bookkeeping to cake decorating. Typically a locally elected Board chooses a President who works with the community to best provide opportunity.

Well we don’t know the details but should the Federal Government seize control of CCs, look no further than the FCC or FAA for the model to follow. Control will completely shift to Washington.. The local President will be one in name only. Imagine the new paper work reporting burden. Local control will evaporate overnight. If you doubt me, try to schedule a hearing with the FCC about your local radio or TV station.

Team Biden will decide how much you can keep, corporation or individual, as the fruits of your labor. New taxes are being rammed through with a razor thin Congressional majority.

America has long prided itself on the American not the French dream for individual liberty. Do you really want to ditch a successful 233 year model Republic?

 

 

Last Half Hour Burst for the DJIA

Thursday May 6 2021

There must have been one or a small group of stocks that attracted buyi\ing the last half hour taking the DJIA to a new high.

TBF is sitll moving sideways but XLE managed to become positive by the end of the day.

Numerous articles in the WSJ today abut the new mega welfare cradle to grave USA.  And there is no way the soak the rick plan will pay for it.

The idea of Universal Day Care will surely involve the Service Employees Union which will re cycle the money received back as Dem donations.

the USA has been decidedly different from the French model, a giant welfar state with high taxes. Is this what America really wants?

 

Energy Taking Off

Wed May 5 2021

Fox Business was agaog today with  headlines that commodities were taking off, that supports our move into emergy

bullish percent pulled back from  100 to  55, PMO bottomed, and is turning up

all of this is a result of massive Federal spending and shortages caused by tariffs on lumber imports

how long before long dated bond interest rates soar?

GSCF

careful now, long term weekly

 

easy money  leads to excessive speculation in all sorts of asset categories, notice how high PMO is already