The Market Perspective

Valuable Companies Collapsing

Thursday July 9 2020

this bank is making millions of dollars in profit but price down  3.6% today

50 day MA crossing 200 day MA to downside, bearish 2 hour chart

 

 

 Witness a bear market

Market Down on Supreme Court Decision

Thursday July 9 2020

12 09 P M CST

I don't see CFR stopping at the blue line of  62.50.  The previous low March 23 was marked by the blue arrows at much lower points on MACD and RSI above.

SPX Four Hour

The move up filled the gap left by the drop after June 8, I am amazed the market is still this high.  MACD looks weak at bottom. We need a drop below the June 259 low to turn the trend down.

Social mood is on negative boil, check out Trump's tweets in reaction to the tax ruling from the Supreme Court.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/trump-rages-at-supreme-court-over-tax-records-case-claims-political-prosecution.html

How the heck does the Manhattan DA have jurisdiction to investigate the President?

NASD 100

Check out the negative article on Apple in Heard on the Street today. Andy Kessler made similar suggestions in his monday column, the virus is delaying the annual update on iPhone.  And at $1.5 T, that is a big valuation for a company selling gizmos. Could the NASD 100 be topping?

New Civil War

Wed July 8 2020

I began this blog in  2009. At that time I identified three maps

the original map of the North and South Civil War

the Red Blue Map of current voting patterns

the right to work map

 

noting they were all the same except the western states did not exist in  1865.

Now a write in Montana notes people are moving to Montana to avoid a developing Civil War.

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/is-america-heading-for-civil-war-of-course-it-is_07072020

Just today I heard the suggestion that

 

Biden will take a far left progressive as his running mate

So ground work is being laid for Biden to stay hidden

Then if Biden wins, recall the woman claiming Biden had accosted her, bring her back and  demand that he step down as President,  catapulting the far left VP into the White House without ever having to run

 

If hat sounds far out, look how fast Al Franken got thrown out of office

 

CFR up Close

Wed July 8 2020

Notice how CFR is sold off hard at the start of each trading day since June 23. No let up in sight so far.

 

 

CFR Continues Volatile Range

Wed July 8, 2020

1026 AM CST

CFR has experienced a three dollar range in  just the first two hours of trading today. There is another gap shown aovve. But frankly the big ranges may not find much support until  lower prices. Recall $61 is book value for CFR.

Where ever the bottom proves to be we are thinking mid month of July.

Transports and small caps are both down today. Of course the NASD is up.

XLE energy ETF is falling just like CFR.  All of this is typical summer action. Be patient, we will certainly attempt to identify the next important trading bottom. We are very anxious for the opportunity at another significant low in CFR.

Correction Underway

Tuesday July 7 2020

For some reason having trouble posting a chart.  See yesterday's chart of Cullen Frost CFR.  It is headed into  the gap zone and should bottom there.

Let's put that and Nustar NS, Valero VLO, Southern SO , AIVN, and possibly an energy company if one gets cheap enough and is making money with a good dividend.

I am out today, update tomorrow morning or tonite.

No Man's Land

Monday July  6 220

This weekend I suggested we watch the market action this week.  Will RSI at top stop at  50?  Will PMO hold or break over? Will the summation index turn up from here?  This is a classic Saturday morning serial, stay tuned, honestly I don't know.

At Home in the Range

Monday July 6 2020

11 22 AM CST

 Stocks remain in a a broad trading range. Thinking of a top this week and then minor pull back followed by rally into August.

 

More and more it looks like FED bond purchases are re cycled into a handful of tech stocks driving the ETF in Tech and Communication higher.

So we have a two tiered market, one sideways with a handful of tech stocks keeping averages up.

Still amazed at the weakness in Frost Bank CFR One Hour

Daily CFR

The upper level of the red line is a  50%rerace top to bottom of he 17-87 range most recent.

Perhaps CFR will fill that gap before bottoming.

This bears watching as the four hour chart may be nearing a bottom.

FANG Stocks Continue to Keep Market Up

Weekend July 4 2020

 A handful of stocks continue to drive three of the ETFs

Technology - Apple and Microsoft

Discretionary - Amazon which is 25%

Communication  - Google, FB, Netflix

And Healthcare benefits from the pandemic

The others including energy and financials are in sad shape

That was my focus in remarking that stock market is not as strong as most think with charts like this

 

While the SPX has re regained a great deal of its post February loss the stocks in the index are nowhere near their January bullish percents

Volume has been declining s the market recovered from the March 23 low

The new high in the NASD is not confirmed by new highs in the SPX INDU TRAN SML.

Still our best indicator suggests that teh market may finally stop consolidating and start rallying

PMO crossed to the upside, the AD line is turning up and RSI is above 50 - all positives.

 

Thursday HIgh and Retreat

Weekend July 2 2020

Friday began with the President trumpeting the 5 m job gain, DJIA up 400 but by the end of the day only  92  points.

 

the retreat in price on good news suggests we may have finally seen the end of small wave 2 of developing larger Wave 3.

The MAs need to flatten but the 50 is already below the 87 which is already flat. Transprts and Small Cap 600 have a similar chart look.

Banks

If in fact we are in a bear market, and I think so, the banks will be in trouble. Already we have seen the German Paypal equivalent Wirecard inflate its books by $2 Billion Ernst and Young cannot seem to find  the money either, don't tell me it just now disappeared.

KBE has fallen below a ten year uptrend line, if our analysis is correct , the index has just touched the underside of the uptrend and failed. It was down 3.9% Thursday.

Monthly charts are slow to change but RSI and MACD are both headed much lower.

Daily

 

The A B C correction ended June 8, RSI and MACD are both headed down.

Proxy Stock Cullen Frost CFR

CFR only spent three days over its 200 day MA. Notw in three weeks it has dropped below all three of its MAs. RSI and MACD are headed lower. Now remember this is no dog stock.  CFR makes hundreds of millions of dollars each quarter and pays a 3.8% dividend. But it is being sold. Its range from high to close Friday was $4. That is a  5.4% decline. And it occurred on the best possible news of job gains.  Hello bear market.

Summation Index NYSE

Daily looks toppy

Weekly charts are always more important

These charts suggest the dizzy giddiness  of Thursday will soon end.

Check back tomorrow as we look at other markets.

thanks for reading the market perspective.