The Market Perspective

A Social Mood SIgn of a Top

3/25/2025

 

 

Tue, Mar 25 at 9:24 AM

 

 

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Thoughts on Gold Silver

3/24/2025

Yes there are scads of ads for gold and silver on TV, protect your portfolio they say.

But seriously is gold legal tender?  Walk into a big box store and try to buy $2500  of appliances with a one ounce gold coin. I Imagine your offer will be rejected.

The US mint will sell you a  .895 ounce silver coin for yes $95.  IS that a good deal?  Silver is selling for $35 an ounce. I don't think so.

https://www.usmint.gov/peace-silver-dollar-2024-proof-coin-24XL.html?&cm_mmc=Bing-_-BRAND+%7C+MSN+%7C+Brand+-+Exact+-+US+Mint-_-BRAND+%7C+US+Mint-_-US%20Mint&cc=BRAND&msclkid=5b2aa91ab2b01c60f087cefb7f0c95b8&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=BRAND%20%7C%20B%20%7C%20USM%20Geo%20Targeted&utm_term=US%20Mint&utm_content=US%20Mint&gclid=CLmgwe_To4wDFTivxQId-0s09Q&gclsrc=ds

From a Dow Theory stand point, silver has never confirmed the new highs in gold. It is $35 well below the 1980 high, and considering the  inflation since 1980 that is saying something.

Another problem with gold and silver is that someone has to confirm the gold or silver is real. That costs money and is unrealistic for every day transactions.

Let's watch gold and silver prices.

Stock, Treasuries, Metals, Is the Enthusiasm Warranted?

Monday 3/24/2025

An easing of tariffs by the US spurred a continues stock rally today. We expected this and said so after the 400 point reversal Friday.

Let's start with bonds, I had expected bonds to drop from an A B C rally but they popped back. Now the long bond is down two points in the last two days.

 

TBF the bear bond fund has jumped from 23.40 to 24.10 in the last three days. Time to buy in again.

Metals

Gold finally hit $3,000 and ads to buy proliferate on cable tv.  We ae a Fib 55 years from 1970 when Americans could own gold again.  It may be that it along with stocks has topped out;.

Stocks

SPX is over done short term and should top this week. Bear market rallies are strong and re kindle faith in the bull market, this is happening now even as non business talk radio embraces the rally.

It will be interesting if stocks bonds and metals are all topping. Crude oil is approaching $70 resistance so there is another make or break level.

 

June 47, 19040 Churchill

3/23/25025

 

Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender. And even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the Old.^[10]

Friday Considered

3/23/2025

I had thought the correction might have ended but averages surged again Friday. still PMO is overbought. Looks like this may last into the week.

Bond prices have refused to back down so we wait there as well.

Crude oil remains sideways 65-70.

Social mood is turning quite negative. Vandals hit Tesla dealers, Dems sit on their hands at the State of Union, AOC ignores Hispanics voting Republican.

Non of this is going to end well.

Correction Ending?

3/21/2025

Stocks Topping Again

The Dow Industrials topped late in January.  The Index declined in a first wave by losing 4,000 points.   A counter trend second wave followed to the upside.  The peak at 42,250 was  recorded yesterday Thursday. This is shown on my free weblog at www.themarketperspective.com.  The Industrials have been down over 400 points this morning. All major indexes are in decline. It may be that the correction has ended and the down trend has resumed.

Yesterday I saw anmarket strategist present his take on the economy.  With no proof of causality, he claimed the 8% decline in the Industrials was, you guessed it, due to tariff uncertainties.  It never occurred to him that perhaps a major social mood change has taken place.  Margin debt is at a record, the price earnings ratio are well above normal, yet consumer confidence dropped a full five points in the latest survey.  The Magnificent Seven have lost their luster. Increasing interest rates and the crushing debt all around the world are at work here.

Meanwhile in the Permian Basin, oil prices have steadied just below $70 now around $68. But Trump’s tariffs will raise the price of steel pipe, the mainstay of oil production. Lay-offs in agencies working to allow leasing permits will only slow an already frustrating government process. Oil companies are not as sure of Trumps help as they were in post-election November.

The strategist did have some interesting observations about the world demand for energy.  He showed photos of Ho Chi Minh City and Bankgog, Thailand in 1985. But today those cities are all aglow at night. Africa and India, photographed at midnight from outer space, lack that kind of lighting. The point is that there is a tremendous demand for energy.

Finally, both the left and right are coming to not just accept but cheer for nuclear energy. Microsoft just re-started a nuclear plant to power a data center. One may invest in either uranium miners URA or the metal itself at sprott.com. France has relied on nuclear plants for some 25% of its energy needs. Angela Merkel shut down Germany’s nuclear plants and that economy now pays some of the highest electric rates in the world.

The move to higher interest rates has been put on hold for the time being. With a $36 trillion national debt, it is hard to see how US rates will do anything longer term but increase.

For now expect the trend to lower stock prices to resume. But the energy sector long term is looking shall we say, brighter.

Nuclear, Finally?

3/20/2025

I saw an energy presentation which simply said

finally red and blue states both vote for nuclear. This is why Fance is ok, and Germany is a mess, France bet big on nuclear years ago, China is doing the same the US, thanks dems, lags behind

 

Let's add URA to the buy list

it just bounced off the 200 week moving average

 

Daily chart, it's a buy

Correcton Ending?

3/20/2025

Here is the  120 min DJIA chart updated thru today, Early to say for sure but looks like the A B C correction to the upside is ending.

Looks like the intraday spike to 42,250 was the high of the ABC rebound

 

The sixty minute chart suggest an end even more so, PMO is about to break over to the downside.

My bet that bond pri9ces would fall has not been working out, thirty year bond jumped 28/32 this morning but looks like it sold off this afternoon/

TBF had a wild day finally closing  near unchanged after dropping to 23.40. I saw another everything is just great economic presentation at Financial Executives International today.

The presenter claimed the consumer had just pulled back due to tariff uncertainties not mentioning delinquencies on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

The real story will be how bonds play out but it makes sense to me that bonds and stock peaked in price today and are now reversing to the downside.

 

Counter Trend A B C

3/19/2025

Markets peaked mid January five of five, wave one ended March 13. We are now in wave two corrective to the upside, an A up B down, and now C final is unfolding. Today had the look of a buying climax but I think there is more to come assuring all that this is not a bear market. Bear funds are selling off.

Bond remain sideways, I am keeping the short bond ETF TBF

Counter Trend Buying Frenzy

 

 

Wed 3/19/2025

Scott Bessent says he’s not worried about the stock market’s ‘healthy correction,’ insisting the Trump administration is only trying to avoid an even bigger financial crisis

We Know What We are Doing!

 

Thinking a trade war staves off a stock market sell off is naive at best , has this guy really been in the investment business?

Percentage of voters who think at least 25% of their tax dollars are wasted by the federal government, according to a new poll from I&I/TIPP. Fourteen percent of respondents believe that more than 75% of tax money goes down the tubes. Only 10% believed waste to be below 10%.