2/9/2025
Donald Trump has a lot in common with Richard Nixon.
Nixon had been Eisenhower's VP for two terms. He lost to jack Kennedy in 1960. He then lost the CA Governor's race n 1962 TO Pat Brown.
Disgusted at the results he told the press, well you won't have Nixon to kick around any more.
Sensing a weak Hubert Humphrey after LBJ dropped out of the race, Nixon defeated Harold Stassen, Ron Reagan, Nelson Rockefeller.
Reagan would also lost to Gerald Ford in 1976. In both instances he was lucky. The negative mood of the1970s defeated all incumbents. Mood improved by 1980 when he easily beat Jimmy Carter.
The Democrats assumed Trump was out for good after losing in 2020. their Law fare campaign and the Press continual criticism as well as cable tv excoriations are similar to the way the Press treated Nixon.
By the way, as social grew more and more negative, Nixon finallyresigned rather tha face impeachment. The markets would collapse from 1,040 in early 73 to 577 by December 1974.
Nixon beat McGovern who only carred 17 electoral votes in 1972.
Now the Democrats control CA OR WA IL NY MA for a total of 123 electoral votes. If Kamla had not had that advantage her final tally would not have been so strong. But here are the similarities
Both men came back from losses.
Both men despised by the mainstream press.
Both men were n their second terms, usually far less successful than first terms.
It is 52 years from 1973 to 2025, three years short of a perfect Fiboacci 55. But Nixon did not resign until August 9, 1974, that makes 53 years. Trump is just getting started so two more years to 55 might make a god target for a break down.
The US was bogged down in Viet Nam, now the US not in a war per se but Mid East and Ukraine drag on.
53 The stock market has re visited its all time high in 1972-3 above 1,000. Today the DJIA stands at another new high.
Popular culture was high for both men as they assumed office the second time.
For Nixon the Watergate burglary cover up doomed his second term resulting in his resignation.
With more executive orders and diplomatic chaos in Panama and Greenland, tariff threat at our biggest trading partners, Democrats screaming outside the Dept of Education Building, what could go wrong?
Page A2 of the Weekend WSJ states the Trump Bump in Consumer Confidence is already over. Prelim results show confidence level sliding 5%.
Trump has announced a new Golden Age, all this resonates with January 1973.
Then as now, interest rates were on the rise. Given the $36 T national debt and a 39 year low in rates March 2020, I think Trump's promise of lower inflation and interest rates are a pipe dream. Indeed rates have started up again as markets slid Friday.
Let's be on the look for a Nassim Taleeb Black Swan event. Such events seemingly come of of nowhere to the surprise of everyone.
The DJIA would collapse from around 1,040 in early 1973 to 577 by December 1974. May brokerages had to merge. Merrill bought White Weld awhich put them in the real investment banking business.