Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary
It's all here, times change people don't
-the endless govt programs that fail to stimulate the private sector
-the ups and downs of the economy, the veterans pension stimulates just as the housing credit did, until of course the money runs out
-Roth is a attorney in Youngstown Ohio who kept a diary regarding the economy from 1930 until WW II breaks out, he is objective, candid, and forthright which is more than we get from Washington DC now or then
highly recommended
Robert Scheer: The Great American Stickup: How Reagan Republicans and Clinton Democrats Enriched Wall Street While Mugging Main Street
The former Editor of Ramparts takes on both parties and how they sold out to Wall Street that is even now partying and bonusing on their former mistakes.
Charles Gasparino: Bought and Paid For: The Unholy Alliance Between Barack Obama and Wall Street
How Wall Street Backed the Administration and Got What It Paid For
Tuesday January 26 2022
DJIA 30 minute
My best guess on where we are so more weakness could happen tomorrow or this is incorrect and we are now in a fourth wave of the larger first wave down
HDGE
TBF a bond bear fund, rises with increse in interest rates, Jerome the market is not waiting on you
Tuesday Jan 25 2022
UNG Natural Gas Trust
50 day MA is about to cross 200 MA giving a big buy signal
BPT correction concluded, 10 % dividend
FRO Frontline this shipper pays a 5% dividend
this looks like correction concluded, readying to take off again
NS
also pays a 10 % dividend and correction over ready to take off again
Tuesday Jan 25 2022
the NASD into the March 2000. high of the dot.com mania and nest three months
Socionomics holds that maximum mood occcurs at the END of a mania, here is the parabolic lead up to the final March 2000 high
today thru Jan 25
the comparable period for year 2000 would be March April, and indeed it looks very much the same
Both charts show a mad dash to the sop in year 2000, a double from Oct to March, wow
Now not as uch 13,000 to 16,250 andnow already back near 13,00, notice how January erased all the gains from last June - July
Monday Jan 24, 2022 9 00 AM CST
the INDU is extending its third wave to the downside this morning and in impresessive fashion
I thought we might turn up in a 4th wave today but unless we see one big rally does not look like it.
Stocks fall seven times faster than they rise and this bear market is living up to that statistic.
NFLX Apparentlythe sellers are not all out of NFLX yet!
Down another 7.5% this morning
Weekend Jan 23, 222
This analysis assumes the early January top was THE FINAL high for various bull markets dating to 2009, 2002,1987, 1982, 1932 low of 41. My friends at EWI suggest this is a final top dating to the founding of the USA in 1788, a 233 year bull market.
The markets have quickly collapsed displaying three waves thus far. The oversold condition shown in the PMO suggests some sort of bottom. As Wave 2 was sharp to the upside the fourth wave is more liable to be a sideways affair for a week or two. Then a final fifth wave should take indexes to a new low, taking out the December Low.
Dow Theory Non Confirmation
The purple line is the Industrials. The new high in the Industrials was NOT confirmed by a new high in the Transports, a classic dow theory failure.'
The converse side of this is the bear fund HDGE.
A pullback or sideways move should occur here in the next week or two allowing for a short term entry.
Remember bear markets can exhibit strong rallies, and after a low in late February or March I would expect just that.
NDX
the NDX shows the same pattern Note it is falling much faster than the INDU NDX is already down 12% just this month!
NASD shows the same pattern as well.
Weekend Jan 22 2022
global Social Media is the ETF for FB et al
Amazon
Sudden reversal of Fortune across all these stocks
FB
Friday Jan 21 2022
Friday Jan 21 2202
First go back to Tuesday Jan 18 and see our posts that day, all suggest a slowing economy from NFLX to HOG
Cleveland Cliffs - Iron Ore
a 25% drop in one month
SLX Steel Producers gap down
A drop in iron ore adn steel producers suggests a slowing economy if not an outright recession
Lower Lows Lower highs, it's a bear market
Most of the comments by experts in quoted in the WSJ are that this is how a bottom is made but prices just keep dropping
NDX
Cohen & Steers REIT
the sudden reversal in January speaks for itself, it is 1973 all over again
I do think we are close to some sort of a short term bottom in major stock indexes, it is too late to enter HDGE but look at the ratio of short HDGE to Long INDU
this probably tops out near the last high in early Dec, maybe Monday a reversal, then a couple of weeks of weak rally and a good set up for HDGE should be at hand