Social Mood and Environmental Uncertainty

Weekend March 2 2013

Socionomics is the predictive social science which holds that internally generated mood determines social action. Environmental Uncertainty is a Branch of management strategy that deals with attempting to discern the future. Social mood at this time is increasingly negative, while positive mood has propelled business start ups and a higher stock market. 

Andrew Weissman's two year delayed restaurant, The Luxury   opens today. The Luxury is built from shipping containers. It is located next to the San Antonio Museum of Art. Two years ago would have caught an increasing wave of positive social mood. As it is, Andrews i opening much closer to what is liable to be a top in mood, and financially positive markets. Our other blog,  The Market Perspective lists technical reasons supporting the idea of a forth coming top. Here are some socionomic reasons derived from how people are spending their evenings-popular television shows. 

The Following  details in flashback the efforts of a weary detective played by Kevin Bacon, to stop a prisoner form carrying out murders and mayhem on an innocent public.  Each week one or more people are murdered for no particular reason. Often the bad guys are assisted by The followers who have infiltrated the police or other forces which should be protecting the innocent. This move to random violence for no particular reason raises the stakes at least one level above the Sopranos who at least had  a reason to kill. 

Nashville  is perhaps the most upbeat offering. Yep this one has it all, a successful female country singer dukes it out with rivals on stage but cannot keep the  home front together. Her plitician husband wants a divorce and the career is always on hit away from crisis.

Scandal  is an American political thriller, translation, night time soap opera. The Republican President has a thing for thing for his political adviser, oh did I mention the President is a white guy and the adviser is a black gal. After recovering from an assassination attempt, the President decides to divorce his nine month pregnant wife and take up housekeeping with the girl friend. His Chief of Staff of course is horrified. There are of course plenty of other corrupt politicians in various subplots. 

Here is the official description of The Walking Dead  the most watched drama in basic cable history, returns for an exhilarating new season on Sun., Oct. 14 at 9/8c. In this uncertain world, Rick Grimes (Andrew Lincoln) and his band of survivors must not only fight the dead, but also face a whole new fear: the living. A 16 episode season, the series Entertainment Weekly called the "greatest thriller ever produced for television' will air in two parts, with the first eight hours kicking off October 14 and returning February 2013 with the final eight episodes. -  Walking Dead is in its third season. 

HBO's SundayNight offering, folloiwng the successful Soprano series, the Godfather next door in New Jersey, is True Blood, the Sookie Stackhouse Series when Vampires go public.   

And tonight we have Red Widow ! Okay so her Dad is in the Russian Mafia and her husband exports Mrijuana or whatever, she has kept her distance. At least until the mob kills her husband in front of her child. Now she must do the bidding of the mob to save the lives of her children. This is another Sunday night offering. 

And then there is Breaking Bad the heartwarming story of a high school teacher who starts  meth lab. The show has been acclaimed and has millions of ollowers. 

Now, here is the socionomic take on this. Sunday night is the one night most folks are home and watch television. In the bull market of the late 1950s and early 1960s, the lead off show was The Wonderful World of Disney. Ed  Sullivan followed with the variety show that featured the first American exposure to the Beatles no less. When GE wanted to promote its new color television sets, it produced the lavish Bonanaza, at 8 PM Sunday evening. In that day it was a social thing to be invited to someone's home that had one of the expensive $500 in that day,  to watch the show. 

Today we have The Walking Dead, True Blood,and Red Widow. People spend their time engaged in activities that reflect their social mood. This says a lot about the dark side of the mood which has gripped the public since the current era of stagnation began in March, 2000. From Tinkerbelle to True Blood, to understand the enviroment, one has to get, In the Mood

 

 

Comments

[Jerry]

Dr. Elam,
Good to see youre still blogging for the eager student. This is certainly an interesing topic. I for one dont watch any television as I consider it to be "black hole" that sucks you into that place where you become unproductive and less and less creative. Nevermind all the weight gain! Ha ha. It is interesting what society deems worthy of their time. Zombies, meth labs, mobs, and nevermind all the useless "reality" shows. An episode of Jersey Shore is enough to mkae me want to jump out my office window. The alternative? Watching our inefficient government fight all week not being able to make a darn decision.

I thought about you the other day on my drive home from a really busy day at work saying to myself, "if Dr. Elam, and my other acounting professors were here, I'd thank them all over again." I cannot stress enough how important the lessons learned are for me by way managerial accounting, and intermediate acct, advanced acct, etc. I get the priveledge to look at financial statements of all types of private companies and get inside looks at a company's operations and organizational structures, that if I did not know the relationship between line items in a basic income statement, I'd be really lost or could make a potentially huge credit mistake as an analyst. I will say I wish we could have covered UCA cash flows more in class cause it seems to be the life-blood of most commercial & industrial operations. Just the other day I was analyzing a credit for a company that, for the most part, rents/leases/sells compression equipment to oil & gas drillers primarily in the Eagle Ford Shale area and surrounding counties. I cannot tell you how much of the everyday lessons we did in class helped me understand the companies inner make-up. I was able to help our management team make an informed credit decision. Everything from audit and internal controls, to managerial accounting (Ie. looking at how their in-house CPA accounted for unearned revenues or how maintenance CapEx affected their cash flows), to projections and interrelated debt, (being able to tell if they are being overly agressive in their budgets). Those lessons helped me put a credit package together that otherwise, would have been impossible.

So thanks again!

Still a student,
Jerry

[Dennis Elam]

Jerry

good to hear from you and thanks for the reassurance that we are doing something worthwhile

Remind me where you are working now

I hope the students will take your comments to hear

[Dennis Elam]

Jerry

Would you like to address our graduate business class May 11 at 2 PM, you would be a great choice for a speaker. We wil be in the large audtiorium at brooks, this is for the honor society and the graduate students. YOu would be expected to talk for a few minutes, your thoughts, reminisces,

Dennis Elam

[Jerry]

Thanks for the invite Dr. Elam but I will be in Scottsdale for my birthday week leaving the 10th. I have yet to see the campus. I do need to come by and see you soon.

Jerry