The WSJ reports that Republicans are not profiting from dissatisfaction with Washington DC as usual.
I am not surprised. Harry Browne as the libertarian candidate for President wrote Why Government Doesn't Work. He theorized that if either political party were to disappear, it would much more likely be the Republicans, not the Dems. As he said, the Dems are all about telling you what to do and there is always a market for that. What do the Republicans stand for, no one knows? That was in 1995 written as the Republicans took over Congress, now they have been tossed out. Their rejection at Tea Parties suggests this is the correct interpretation. Reagan was the exception not the typical Republican product which is much more along the lines of Ford, Dole, Bush, no innovation there!
The overall social mood is negative, and that is going to be reflected in low ratings for ALL existing parties. The approval rate for congress is less than 20%, and that was true when Bush was on his way out of office. Neither party is grasping that BOTH of them now rate low in the polls as to approval ratings.
Their conventional wisdom of course is that if one is doing bad, the other will benefit, as the WSJ article reports this is not the case.
In a bear market opinion will savage all existing conventional players. Our template is the 1970s, look what happened to
Richard Nixon R
Gerald Ford R
Jimmy Carter D
Tip O'Neil D
Dan Rostenkowsi D
Conservative Dem governors in Texas thrown out for the first time in decades, no one voted for Bill Clements until after he was elected, that was his take on it....
Scott Burns the financial writer said that if his e mail was correct the last national election would be the last one when there were only two parties. Republicans came to office as the Civil War started. Such landmark events, like this economic depression, bring startling change.
There are governor elections next week in Virginia and New Jersey and congressional elections in New York and California, I expect narrow results with no one able to claim a clear victory.