Weekend May 20, 2017
In late April the DJIA managed to regain the 50 bar MA and make a lower high. This time the target area is the blue square. eventually as we have noted, it is typical
for a market that breaks an MA to come back up and re test what is now resistance.That is where the DJIA will be this next week, testing.
Closely examine the Transports above and then the Industrials in the first chart. It becomes more apparent that the Transports are leading the Industrials down. the lower high lower low
patern is well along the way. The blue square is a likely target for the rebound, right at the 50 day MA.
As noted in the WSJ, money is pouring into technology as well as tech in emerging markets.
TWM Inverse Russell 2000
Best guess is that TWM corrects its advance by week end. That should be the time the rally in the Transports and Industrials starts to run out of steam.
USO Oil ETF
XES Energy Service
XES will encounter big resistance at the cluster of EMAs around 19-20. The outcome will likely be decisive.
XES Two Hour
On the two hour chart the battle at 19-20 becomes much more difficult. The trend is down here.
CDE Silver Miner
slowly coming back
Gold has a positive chart pattern here. Central Fund CEF is trading at a -5.7% discount to Net Asset Value. And the chart continues to test support and bounce higher. OBV at bottom and STO at top look very supportive for purchase.
As always we are in the summer months ahead and weakness may be expected in gold shares into mid June.
The new Brazil once again looks a lot like the old Brazil. It dropped 0% this week over Presidential troubles.
The Bottom Line
We guess that the US markets will complete their recovery by week end. Look for the re test of the MAs outlined above.
Bond are stronger than expected.This adds to my perception of market weakness developing.
Crude oil is probably paralleling the general strength of the stock market. Look for tests of resistance there as well by week end.
Gold and silver look better, gold shares always a dicey play. I own a small position in silver miner CDE.
The podcast Price Trends Price Culture is transitioning to membership status at the socionomics site
Karen Elliott House, former Editor of the WSJ and the Daily Texan when I was an undergrad there, had an excellent article on the Trump Saudi visit this weekend. It as an op ed in the Friday WSJ. See my column posted Friday . The Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman MBS has 50 Islamic Leaders, the Harlem Globetrotters, and Toby Keith on hand. Obama turned his back on the House of Saud favoring Iran. MBS is looking for a re start of the US in the Middle East. The television footage today Saturday confirms everything Karen predicted.
All We Had to Do was Buy Amazon
It was noted this past week in the WSJ that Amazon turned out to be the internet stock we all should have bought. It is in purple. Here it crosses the SRT chart showing the preference for on line shopping over brick and Mortar. WMT is doing better online but the same chart substituting WMT for XRT also shows a breka out by AMZN.
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