Tuesday March 19 2013
Recent data from Ned Davis Research reviewed the 13 highs for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index SPX -0.55% since its 1950s debut. The data show that in the worst case, the S&P 500 tacked on another 2.3% over 132 days before peaking. In the best case, the bulls marched ahead for around 7.5 more years — 2,711 days, to be exact — and added another 221.6%. The median since 1954 is 417 days and 18% upside. Granted, this sample size is small, but it’s noteworthy
Above I copied one of the author's reasons for staying long. What is more likely to happen is that investors, hoping for that last 2.3% will be lulled into complacency, see VIX new lows, and over stay the welcome. Investors in Rackspace RAX and Apple APPL have recently learned that lesson. The better idea would be to begin scaling in HDGE positions as the market moves higher in anticipation of an eventual downturn.
Here is another belated bear turning bullish. Adam Parker at Morgan Stanley predicts 1600, a 3.1% gain from here. This is similar to the previous prediciton. It utterly fails the risk reward test. The time to become bullish was at the low latein 2011, not now.
Just yesterday one stock with complete insider selling LULU dropped 6% on the news that some of its yoga togs were 'too see through.' In a wonderful play on words LULU admitted it was 'too exposed' to such risk by having too few suppliers.
Here is a good article on oil pricing. it also details a good bit about oil futures.
Here is a companion piece on gasoline pricing. In fact these two are worth printing for accumulating in your 'investing library.'
Notice the correlation between
crude oil at top
the Aussie Dollar in the main panel
Gold at the bottom. while Cyprus is a tiny spot, the attempted seizure of personal bank funds will no doubt increase in terest in alternatives to fiat money, particularly bank deposts that can be grabbed by politicians.
The transition to the final stage of this bull market with commodity prices spiking as a result of Central Bank printing is getting underway.