Weekend Sept 21 2014
The five year rally from 2009 - 2014 now looks a lot like the 1932 - 1937 rally.
Doug Short is an interesting read. is always an interesting read
Check out the article on page B7 of the Weekend WSJ by Morgan Housel
Why This Rally Can't Last and What to do Bout it
Well 2003-2007 lasted 1,132 days, so far the 2009 rally has lasted 707 days
2009 - 2014 weekly
And Friday closed out on good volume to a new high.
JUst another hiccup or the start of something bigger?
Divergence Between Summation Index and NYSE
Teh summation INdex has decisively turned down while the NYSE index is still up. This is an example of how so many tech analysts have been fooled by this rally. The indicators have not been much help in the face of market manipulation and FED Funnies.
Bonds Correct and Bounce
Bonds have corrected and then bounced nicely Friday. IS TLT anticipating something, more FED easing, not likely or a pullback in stocks?
Dollar and Oil
The Dollar has returned to its previous high at 85
GAsoline is still basing but looks like it could moev up if the Dollar corrects.
We continue to expect a top of some significance this fall 2014. Clearly the markets are still up and the FED is still suportive.
Social Mood - It's All One Market, Collectibles and Stocks
A 1962 Ferrari GTO sold for $38 million at Bonhams auction.
Scotland voted to stay in the UK, good idea. But the Catalonians want out of Spain as do other Europenan groups from the Mother Country.
I am persuaded that Charles Krauthammer is right. ISIS taunts the US to fight by be heading Americans and Brits, knowing the US won't directly fighting Iraq, which is where ISIS is located. And let a few Americans get captured ala John McCain, and the new demand for doing something over there will wilt. I doubt there will be any real coalition. And so the stage is set for the 34th anniversary of Jimmy Carter's experience in Iraq. 34 is a fibonacci number. Carter was undone by a kidnapping of American Embassy personnel. A rescue mission failed with helicopters stranded in a sand storm. That sent the message that America was a paper tiger. Here we go again. I suspect this discomfort with our image will only grow if in fact we are right about a fall top in 2014 in the markets.
I am not deliberately being political here. The malaise in the Mid East was a big feature of the continuing 18 year cycle at the end of the 1970s. The hostages were returned the day Reagan was sworn in, 19814/. But the market would move in fits and starts not really getting underway until the summer of 1982.
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