Monday Oct 29 2012
A few weeks back Neal Cavuto commented to Larry Sabato that the election would not be close. Sabato at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia of course thought it was a neck and neck race. Sabato was stunned that Cavuto would even say such a thing, what did Neal think would happen? Neal demurred but I will go with Neal's instinct.
Now take a look at the short piece in today's WSJ on page A 19 about Johnny Carson's unscientific poll of his audience in 1980 and 1984. Then as now the polls had the Democrat candidate ahead. But the age old applause meter had Reagan in winning in a walk. which he did.
Now turn to page B1. Hmm, Left leaning Comedy Central's prime time audience fell 19% in teh four weeks through October 21. MTV's audience declined 32%. I s this randomness as Nasim Taleb would say or is there a link going on here. Go back three weeks before October 21 and one arrives at the first Presidential Debate, October 3, more or less. Is this randomness or is there cause and effect? Are people voting with their tv remote controls?
Yesterday Chris Wallace was trying to make hay of the abortion positions with the Republican Senator from Wisconsin. The Senator replied it was just not an issue, the Libya Embassy and how it was handled was the issue.
We shall see.Between the hurricane and the election I suspect we will continue to wait for more commitment from the markets. I am still in cash.