Tuesday Sept 4 2012
Italian and Spanish bond yields are falling. This fits perfectly into the scenario we have outlined. Indeed even the market is buying the bonds in advance of an ECB intervention.
Gyms are experiencing a surge in work out classes. We mentioned this weekend several examples of positive social mood that would support a fall rally. Here is another example. A desire for personal fitness is a bull market phenomenon. Pride in one self reflects a positive social mood. This article reflects that individual work out equipment like a Stair Master is being removed for more group activity. Inclusionism, the desire to join with other individuals is also a bull market phenomenon.
This comment from the end of the article says it all. The relationship is emotional, which is what socionomics is all about.
At Equinox gyms, about 45% of members attend group classes. "The reason our group fitness business is so powerful is because the relationship between the instructor and the members is, in many ways, emotional," says Carol Espel, senior national director of group fitness and Pilates at Equinox.
Since Clint Eastwood is in the news, his rise to fame was in fact a converse example of the above. The triology of the Man With No Name movies first appeared near the end of the bull market from 1948-1966. By the time final installment The Good, Bad Ugly appeared the bull market had ended. The horror of Viet Nam was really getting underway. The movies were quite violent featuring a modern Ronin or Samurai fighting for himself finally amidst the horror of the US Civil War. This same sentiment was playing out on campus. Membership in Greek fraternities and sororities fell my entire undergraduate time from 1966 to 1970. A campus wide event, I the Starting Point was held focusing on the individual not the group.
But back to Clint. It seems to me that Mr. Eastwood is more of a bear market figure, certainly many of his movies feature exceptionally dark themes. High Plains Drifter, Pale Rider, and The Unforgiven are all Old Testament tales of revenge, an eye for an eye. Since year 2000 when the current dowturn began he brought movies with dark themes
Million Dollar Baby about a female boxer who is paralyzed by a vicious blow and then decides to take her own life
Gran Torino about an auto worker facing a terminal illness who decides to sacrifice himself for someone else
the J Edgar Hoover story, a fairly dark figure if ever there was one
his next movie is about a baseball scout losing his sight,
again Dark Themes
On a positive note Clint has accomplished what oh so many television series regulars aspire to, moving from the small screen to the big one. Sally Struthers and McLean Stevenson tried and failed. James Garner is one of the few that I remember who was able to move between the two with success. After directing and producing Play Misty for Me, Clint never looked back and became Universal's bankable producer. There is the story he might have told at the Republican Convention, he built it.
Meanwhile in Chicago
Perhaps this Chicago Mayor job is not working out as Rahm Emanuel planned. Now Chicago teachers are threatening their first strike in 25 years. That was back in the Fall of 1987, anybody remember what happened next, yep the Crash of 87. That was a time of negative social mood when the market started falling after Labor Day all the way into October. Here the negative social mood is lagging the positive, that will change.
Not much pullback today considering the $33 rally in gold Friday. Watch the Euro