Friday August 24, 2012
The computer hardware business is about like the electronic retailing business, just ask the guys at Best Buy. In the 1960s Control Data provided both big computers at UT Austin. In the 19710s names like Digital Equipment, DEC and Wang were all the rage. RCA and Texas instruments stuck their toe in the computer water, and left after wasting tens of millions. THere was a plethora of PC makers in the early PC days of the late 70s and early 80s like Commodore and TRS and Kaypro, now Dell, HPQ and Accer lose stock price every day. Apple is the first to have offered a truly integrated line of products with an architecture that is not open to all. . But all parabolic rises end in the same fashion.
Here is a very long term Market Perspective for you. The high tech darling of the 1920s was Radio Corporation of America, then eveyrone wanted a radio and RCA was the provider. It topped in 1929 and did nto regain its price then until the 1950s. The first color televisions of the early 1960s were just awful by today's standards but it was GE and RCA that provided them. Now, wen was the last time you saw
The 126-128 are looks reasonable for a re-tracement of TLT. The blue bar histogram at bottom should turn positive for a bit. The 50 day MA is at 126.64 so that too makes this range a reasonable target.
Conversely a move back to 41 between the lower MAs looks reasonable, this would test buying support at the lower side of this uptrend channel.
We posted an article yesterday suggesting that the year long correction in gold had ended. Take a close look above. One can see gold breaking out of this entire lower area from 1525 to 1640. The multiple ribbons of MAs also give a better feel for what is going on. Note the slow uptrend that found buyers on every pullback since late may, which of course is what we have been discussing in these updates. All the Western countries iva their Central Banks plan to print their way out of debt. The $4500 number that Brimelow mentioned is not unrealistic, when we cannot know. CCI is now quite overdone so a pullback to the 200 day MA is reasonable.
Targets are always dangerous as they persuade one they have to happen, anything can happen.
I added a 25 day MA, a move back to 1370 1390 looks reasonable here. And that would take RSI just below 0.
Enjoy your day, more this weekend from TMP.