Tuesday July 17, 2012
Peter Schiff is predicting the end of the world. If you sell Disaster books you must continually do this, you will get more headlines when social mood is negative about the stock market as it is now. I listed the fundamental problems ahead this weekend, and yes they will happen but next year most probably. I am re-reading from this morning, let me correct myself. The negative events of next year are already occurring, such as municipal bankruptcies and the student loan crisis. The realization that these are multiple crises will arrive next year. He is right about owing gold and silver, wrong on the dollar, and right about avoiding low yield bonds, in my opinion.
This morning I entered orders for GDXJ at 18.56, 18.46, 18.36 when it was trading at 18.61. The market as expected was weak during the Bernanke Blather, and all the orders got filled. Now GDXJ is 18.67. It is interesting to see such orders get filled as Wall Street is the one place where investors are reluctant to buy bargains.
Public Sells in the Morning, Then the Pros Come In
A predictable pattern is emerging which can be used in placing orders. The drumbeat of negative news, the end of Europe, the poor jobs recovery, Ford is not doing as well as it has, GM has trouble in Europe, Lady Gaga cancels Indonesia Tour, is more than the average investor can stand, better put those sell orders in early and buy more bond funds yielding 1.5%. As mentioned I got nice fills on GDXJ by placing orders lower than the opening, watching the market swoon on Bernanke, I got filled, and then GDXJ came back up. After all with every government raising taxes we need every cent we can make.
Both UUP, the US Dollar, and TLT, bonds, retreated todady on the hourly charts but that hardly breaks the trend. However above the SPX has tacked on 40 S & P points in four days. As Art Hill remarked yesterday, something has to give. We think it will be a retreat out of the Dollar and Bonds as this stock rally gets going.
Energy Services XES
We have consistently told readers to watch oil, and the dollar, but here oil is the key as it is priced in Dollars.
At top the money is flowing back into this sector.
XES has breached the 50 day MA.
MACD is on the way up.
We are long XES but and will be placing orders under the market hoping for another morning sale allowing us top buy lower Wednesday.
With the June 30 quarter end out of the way my sense is that the market is picking up momentum here. I will be posting more frequently. I note that either
I am not getting any feedback or
that most of the writers think I have 'lost it' We shall see. Thanks for reading The Market Perspective.