Tuesday July 24 2012
Here is someone else who believes oil drives the markets. Note that this analyst has mentioned the Middle East as i did this morning.
The character of the rally changed after June 4. Now the market has been moving higher with the RSI bouncing off its zero line. Since the top on June 18, the market seems to have averaged 4-6 days in one direction or the other. I labeled the down moves in days. so a test of that 50 day MA now at 1333 seems realistic in the next week.
Weekend Market Perspective July 22, 2012
And sure enough the market closed today at 1338 with a low of 1329. the median being
1333.5! Note I added yet another MA at 162 days, half way between 125 and 200. Interestingly price stopped near the 50 and 162.
As was the case on the last two pullbacks, this generated a daily PAR SAR sell signal. the market has to get over 1380 to generate a bullish signal again. Previous sell offs were four to six days and fifty points, the fifty points has already been covered.
For the umpteenth time, I am not an Elliott Wave expert but the sell offs appear corrective in an A B C pattern. The market bounced back the last half hour recovering about half its loss for the day.
So, feeling better now, the market hit the target set just this weekend, the patterns are repeating,gold and crude oil (see article referenced above both ended the day positive, oh did you listen to the news today, that's it!
We added a fifth moving average of 250 to the chart and sure enough, that longest one seems to be teh lower boundary. MACD looks like it needs one more low opening to bottom.
The weekly summation index charts both turned negative today. This does not mean the markets cannot bounce here but this suggests more weakness.
Crude oil closed up on the day. But frankly, this has gone on a bit long for my taste. I am reminded that after May go away, summers are too hard on the trading nerves.One earns every dime one makes in the stock market.....more tomorrow morning.
In closing an alert TMP reader sent this suggestion
This indicator is now at its fourth lowest point since 2008! No wonder my readers are depressed! A monthly chart is slow, very slow to turn, patience...
Of course all these previous lows were buying opportunities.....if this were easy you would not need a day job with a boss, you could just trade the market...