Monday June 25, 2012 5:0 PM CST
No doubt many in the public arena were fearful of the European meltdown. And no doubt the failure of the market to stay above 50 dy MAs which are used as the basis for many quant. computerized trading programs caused selling today. But just as last fall of 2011 and fall of 2008, gold bottomed before stocks. Looking at the chart gold bottomed May 16 2012 on a close of 1541.40. today it closed up 13.50 at 1584.70. It has steadily put in a progression of higher lows just as it did in 2008a nd 2011 prior to stock bottoms. The low in the SPX was the first couple of days of June around 1280. Today despite all the stories about the market falling apart was another marginal higher low.
Central Fund move up 27 cents
SIL declined 11 cents
was off a mere 17 cents, we have recommended all these for investment
Crude oil is the laggard as usual. Many analysts have hit the panic alarm calling for number in the area of $70 or even $40. Crude actually closed well asbove its low of 78.03 at 79.35 today. XES another recommendation followed it lower. Remember that the lows in crude oil usually do not last long. It is better to have a succession of orders in ahead or time for small amounts as the price falls. Once all this reverses it is liable to do so violently. And frankly I don't think we will see $70 much less $40 for crude right now.
TLT jumped an amazing 1.82 today but it still below its June high of 130 or so. This rush to negilibile yields will not be rewarded by the stock market. AS the WSJ article we quoted this weekend said, Bonds are priced for the end of the world. The Dollar ended the day down .03 closing lower than Friday.
Just a few thoughts, my day job calls. More tomorrow morning.